Canadian Dollar Rises as Oil Surges on Hormuz Disruption | 12th March, 2026

Oil Lifts Canadian Dollar

Global markets are reacting to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as fears surrounding potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push oil prices sharply higher. The surge in crude prices is providing strong support to commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Canadian Dollar, which is gaining momentum as energy markets tighten. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand strengthens the Japanese Yen amid escalating conflict concerns, while the Australian Dollar finds support from growing expectations of further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In contrast, the Euro faces pressure as EUR/USD breaks below key technical levels, highlighting the broader influence of USD strength and shifting risk sentiment.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Canadian Dollar strengthens as oil prices surge above key levels following fears of supply disruptions tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The rally in energy markets is providing strong support to the commodity-linked currency.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Rising tensions in the Middle East increase the likelihood of oil supply disruptions.

US Economic Data: Stable US economic indicators continue to support overall USD resilience.

FOMC Outcome: Fed policy expectations remain tied to inflation pressures from rising energy costs.

Trade Policy: Global trade uncertainty continues to influence commodity-linked currencies.

Monetary Policy: Higher oil prices strengthen the Canadian Dollar through improved terms of trade.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish bias for USD/CAD as CAD strengthens.

Resistance: 1.3720

Support: 1.3520

Forecast: USD/CAD may continue to move lower if oil prices remain elevated.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish Canadian Dollar sentiment.

Catalysts: Oil price movements, geopolitical developments, US economic data.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar gains ground as markets increasingly price in additional rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Hawkish central bank expectations help offset broader geopolitical concerns.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions create volatility but have limited direct impact on AUD.

US Economic Data: USD strength remains an important factor for the pair.

FOMC Outcome: Fed policy outlook continues to shape global currency flows.

Trade Policy: China-related economic developments influence Australian exports.

Monetary Policy: Rising RBA tightening expectations support the Australian Dollar.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bullish recovery.

Resistance: 0.7120

Support: 0.6980

Forecast: AUD/USD may continue higher if RBA tightening expectations strengthen.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Moderately bullish.

Catalysts: RBA commentary, commodity prices, US macro releases.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Japanese Yen strengthens as investors turn toward safe-haven currencies amid intensifying conflict between Iran and regional forces. Defensive flows continue to support the Yen despite ongoing monetary policy uncertainty.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Heightened Middle East tensions increase safe-haven demand.

US Economic Data: Strong US fundamentals maintain Dollar resilience.

FOMC Outcome: Interest rate expectations continue to influence yield spreads.

Trade Policy: Global uncertainty encourages defensive currency positioning.

Monetary Policy: BoJ policy uncertainty limits aggressive Yen appreciation.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Slight bearish pullback in USD/JPY.

Resistance: 159.20

Support: 156.80

Forecast: Yen strength could continue if geopolitical risks escalate further.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Risk-off bias.

Catalysts: Geopolitical headlines, Treasury yields, BoJ communication.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil climbs above $92.50 as fears of supply disruptions intensify following geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. Traders are increasingly pricing in the risk of restricted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Conflict in key oil-producing regions threatens global supply routes.

US Economic Data: Global demand expectations continue to support oil consumption.

FOMC Outcome: Higher oil prices could contribute to inflation pressures influencing Fed policy.

Trade Policy: Supply chain risks remain elevated due to global tensions.

Monetary Policy: Inflation concerns linked to energy prices affect central bank expectations.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Strong bullish breakout.

Resistance: $95.00

Support: $88.50

Forecast: Oil prices may continue rising if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Strong bullish sentiment.

Catalysts: Middle East developments, inventory data, OPEC decisions.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD falls below its 200-day moving average, signaling a potential shift in longer-term momentum. The decline reflects stronger USD demand and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Rising tensions increase demand for safe-haven currencies like USD.

US Economic Data: Solid US macro indicators continue to support the Dollar.

FOMC Outcome: Fed policy expectations reinforce USD strength.

Trade Policy: Global uncertainty dampens sentiment toward risk currencies.

Monetary Policy: Diverging ECB-Fed policy outlooks pressure the Euro.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish continuation.

Resistance: 1.1620

Support: 1.1480

Forecast: EUR/USD may extend losses if USD strength persists.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish Euro sentiment.

Catalysts: US macro data, ECB commentary, geopolitical developments.

Wrap-Up

The sharp rise in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions is becoming a key market driver, influencing currencies, commodities, and risk sentiment across global markets. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian Dollar are benefiting from the energy rally, while safe-haven demand continues to support the Japanese Yen. At the same time, rising oil prices could reinforce inflation concerns globally, potentially influencing future central bank policy decisions. As long as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, volatility across financial markets is likely to remain elevated.

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