Dollar index, USD/JPY, EUR/USD

US GDP --> Dollar index

The most significant event of the week is expected to take place on Thursday with the preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter. The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the previous quarter. In terms of unexpected outcomes, there is potential for a higher-than-anticipated GDP figure, given that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts growth of 2.9% versus forecasts 2.4%.

On Friday, the core PCE price index for March will be released, along with personal consumption and income data. Projections indicate that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation remained unchanged at a rate of 2.8% on an annual basis.

The US dollar index is standing beneath the five-month high of 106.30, creating a somewhat bearish retracement. First support is coming from the 105.55 barrier ahead of the 104.85 barricade, which overlaps with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). If there is a successful rise above the previous peak, then the price may re-challenge the eleven-month high of 107.00.

BoJ decision --> USD/JPY

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Friday is another key event this week. After years of negative interest rates, Japanese officials raised them by 10bps and removed yield curve control when they last convened. However, with the Bank announcing they will continue buying bonds in around the same levels and Governor Ueda declaring they will maintain accommodative policy conditions, investors continued to expect modest and cautious hikes.

In FX markets, USD/JPY has been finding strong resistance near the 34-year high of 154.77 over the last four days, indicating weak momentum after the strong bullish rally in the medium-term view. More advances could take the market towards the next psychological numbers such as 155.00 and 156.00. Above this region, the pair could switch its attention at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 151.95 to 140.20 at 159.15. On the other hand, a swing to the downside may send the price towards the uptrend line near 150.87.

Eurozone flash PMIs --> EUR/USD

The euro area economy slowed in mid-2023 but avoided a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Recent data has been more optimistic, suggesting a turnaround. The services PMI is expected to rise to 51.9 and the manufacturing PMI to 46.5 in April.

EUR/USD is moving sideways in the very short-term, after the rebound off the five-month low of 1.0600 and resistance at the 1.0695 line. In case of an upside retracement, the 1.0695-1.0720 region may be the next obstacle to look for ahead of the uptrend line and the 20-day SMA at 1.0745. A rally higher could open the way for a retest of the 50- and the 200-day SMAs around 1.0810. In the negative scenario a drop beneath the 1.0600 handle could see the market extend its losses until 1.0515.