US500, OIL, USDJPY

Powell threatened as Trump pressures Fed → US500

US stock futures dipped today after Fed Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the Trump administration threatened him with criminal charges, raising concerns over central bank independence. Powell said the threat, tied to his congressional testimony on a renovation project, was a “pretext” to pressure the Fed into steep rate cuts. The move intensifies Trump’s long-standing push for greater control over monetary policy.

The backlash was swift: Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, warned that the indictment threat undermines the Justice Department’s credibility. Tillis pledged to block any Trump nominees to the Fed, including Powell’s potential successor, until the legal dispute is resolved.

The US500 cash index is plunging from the new record peak of 6,978 posted last week, with expectations of a bearish correction toward the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs) at 6,875 and 6,822 respectively. Even lower, the uptrend line and the 6,725 support could act as turning points. However, to the upside, the 7,000 round number awaits a touch. The MACD and RSI are tilted to the downside.

US may act in Iran → WTI Crude Oil

Oil prices recorded their longest run of weekly gains since June, driven by escalating tensions in Iran and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The surge followed reports of a harsh crackdown on nationwide protests by Iranian authorities, while US President Donald Trump signaled potential consequences if demonstrators were harmed.

Trump is set to receive a briefing on Tuesday outlining possible responses to Tehran’s actions. The discussions are expected to explore a range of measures, including amplifying online support for anti-government movements, deploying covert cyber tools against Iranian military and infrastructure, imposing additional economic sanctions, and even considering targeted military strikes. These deliberations underscore Washington’s intent to pressure Iran amid rising unrest, adding further volatility to global energy markets.

WTI crude oil rebounded off the 55.85 support level last week, extending its upside move above the medium-term downtrend line, the short-term SMAs, and the 59.00 area. More increases could lead investors toward the 61.40 barricade and the 200-day SMA at 62.70, switching the near-term outlook to a more positive one. A slide below the descending trend line could endorse a negative bias again.

US CPI → USDJPY

Markets await Tuesday’s December CPI, the first clean read since the shutdown. Headline inflation is expected to keep the annual rate near 2.7%, while core CPI should print around 0.2–0.3% m/m, holding close to 2.7% y/y. A softer core reading could challenge the Fed’s stance on sticky inflation and bring forward bets for a 25 bps cut from mid-June, with the new Fed Chair still unannounced.

USDJPY is trying today to break the short-term trading range of 154.30–157.90 to the upside, but the current momentum is still weak. If the day ends above the upper boundary, the next target to look at would be the 158.86 barrier. However, even if there is a slide back within the consolidation area, the 20- and 50-day SMAs at 156.40 and 155.60, may pause any declines.