AccuTrade System

2025-11-07 EURUSD TP2 Hit on H2 Timeframe +57 Pips

2025-11-10 AUDJPY TP3 Hit on H2 Timeframe +80 Pips

2025-11-10 CADJPY TP3 Hit on H4 Timeframe +87 Pips

2025-11-10 GBPUSD TP3 Hit on H4 Timeframe +104 Pips

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG): Time to Go Short USDJPY

2025-11-11 NZDJPY TP2 Hit on H4 Timeframe +43 Pips

2025-11-11 USDCHF TP3 Hit on H3 Timeframe +64 Pips

HSBC— Gold: The USD 4,000 BattlegroundThe Macro DivergenceThe traditional inverse relationship between Gold and the USD has temporarily decoupled. This divergence is driven by a hawkish recalibration within the Federal Reserve. With inflation remaining sticky, policymakers are pushing back against premature easing, and money markets are currently pricing in approximately 33bp of tightening/holding by year-end. Consequently, the upcoming US labor data (ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls) will serve as the primary directional catalyst.

The USD 4,000 Liquidity TrapThe psychological threshold of USD 4,000/oz represents a critical double-edged sword for institutional flow:

The Downside TriggerA sustained break below USD 4,000 is highly likely to trigger a cascade of retail sell-stops, creating a temporary liquidity vacuum and accelerating short-term spot weakness.

The Institutional Safety NetConversely, HSBC notes that sub-4,000 levels are expected to court aggressive physical bargain hunting and official sector (central bank) buying, which have remained largely sidelined during the recent high-altitude consolidation.

JPM London G10 FX Spot Desk—EUR/USD： Bearish to Neutral

Market Environment: Proper "Summertime market" with tight ranges. Consolidating ahead of next week's US CPI and FOMC minutes.

USD Bias: Reluctant to short USD despite recent weeks' large moves.

EUR Bias: Bearish to Neutral (moved from bearish to neutral). The market is generally pessimistic about the Eurozone region, suggesting the currency should at least cushion recent moves.

Actionable Outlook: Expect tight ranges today. Lack of market appetite suggests traders will not rush to add EUR risk. Portfolio remains unchanged from yesterday.(July 7, 2026)

Crédit Agricole G10 FX Strategy—NZD/USD： Bearish.

Market Environment:The market is too complacent about a rate hike by the RBNZ on Wednesday. The rates market is pricing about a 70% chance for a 25bp hike, but the central bank narrowly missed hiking rates in May in a split vote.

NZD Bias:Bearish. This week's meeting is expected to be another close call with a split vote. While some MPC members may push for a hike due to persistent domestic inflation, others will likely vote to hold due to weak business surveys and a falling share of businesses passing on higher costs. Governor Adrian Orr will likely break a tie by voting to hold, leaving rates on hold.

Actionable Outlook:The knee-jerk reaction in the NZD would be lower in the event of the RBNZ holding rates. Any weakness in the currency would be restricted by hawkish rhetoric, as the RBNZ is merely delaying the inevitability of higher rates by six weeks until the next MPS. We continue to like being short AUD/NZD.(July 7, 2026)

ING Bank FX Flash: USD: Higher energy prices will fuel the Fed hawks1. Core LogicThe Energy-Hawkish Link:Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (US-Iran negotiation breakdown and military strikes in Iraq) have pushed Brent crude toward $80/bl. Higher energy prices are expected to provide strong fuel for the Fed hawks, keeping the USD well-supported on dips, particularly against low-yielding currencies.

Balanced Fed Scenarios:The June FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers are weighing two equally credible scenarios: a delayed rate cut if inflation dissipates, or an immediate rate hike if inflation remains sticky. This keeps the Fed's hawkish optionality wide open, preventing any meaningful dovish shift.

Carry Trade Resilience:While geopolitical shocks have triggered a spike in volatility and forced some unwinding of extended EM carry positions (such as the Hungarian forint), high-yielding currencies are expected to remain relatively insulated over the summer as investors buy the dips.

2. Key TakeawaysGeopolitical Volatility:The escalation of military actions in Iraq has driven up short-end interest curves and FX volatility, though the direct spot reaction in the USD has remained relatively muted so far.

Key Upcoming Catalysts:With the FOMC minutes causing little immediate market movement, the next major directional drivers for the USD will be today's speech by the dovish John Williams, next Tuesday's June CPI, and Chair Kevin Warsh's House testimony next Wednesday.

DXY Target & Levels:DXY is currently trading around the 101.00 level. ING favors a move back toward the 101.50 area, supported by the energy-driven hawkish bias.

(July 09, 2026)

JPM London G10 FX Spot Desk: Bearish USDJPY. 

Core View: Bearish USDJPY. Do not buy USDJPY at current levels.

MoF Strategy Shift: The Ministry of Finance (MoF) did not intervene despite softer US data. This suggests authorities are shifting from short-term market intervention to addressing longer-term structural flows.

Key Levels to Watch: If USDJPY breaks recent highs again (specifically testing above 163), the MoF is highly likely to step in and force a sharp reversal.

Trading Action: Maintain shorting USDJPY or CHFJPY. The risk-reward ratio heavily favors JPY strength here; chasing USDJPY highs is extremely risky.

Trading is not about predicting the future; it is about systematic trend-following and ruthless risk management. — AccuTrade System

2026-07-15 AUDJPY TP3 Hit on H2 Timeframe + 90 Pips