Gold next week
Gold-Algo here
(1)
looking at gold in its daily chart, the price is stuck under a resistance that has been tested for multiple of times and still is strong however the continuation of higher lows and the push to the top with tighter and tighter legs seems the price insists on breaking that resistance.
(2)
on the 4H chart, the price has entered the block ordered and reacted to the 50% level of the OB candle(s). right after is a minimal reaction and move down, but with the strong push to the top, the bullish sentiment of the market and etc..., the price will linger in the OB.
(3)
now in the 15M chart, if the price breaks the red line, we can be more confident and positive in a strong bear move to 3330.
NOW,
gold is very much affected and its actions are very much related to the news, China-Taiwan conflict, Russia-Ukraine war, Trump vs cook/FederalReserve news and... all these news, data, quotes, public speaks and tweets and... pushes gold up. so have it in mind that trading bearish is super risky.
I think gold is in a bear trap phase now and liquidity is above recent height. institutions are carefully distributing, keeping price elevated to pressure retail shorts. Price can day/weekend gap down but will remain elevated until retail flip sentiment or capitulate on shorts. but SM can also distribute more, letting price drop, to bait more retail shorts before a final squeeze.
vovaborysko posted:I think gold is in a bear trap phase now and liquidity is above recent height. institutions are carefully distributing, keeping price elevated to pressure retail shorts. Price can day/weekend gap down but will remain elevated until retail flip sentiment or capitulate on shorts. but SM can also distribute more, letting price drop, to bait more retail shorts before a final squeeze.
for now, i keep my eyes on the NFP jobs numbers this week. The metals rally is running on the idea that the Fed will finally cut in September. And this week’s jobs data will kinda decide if that rally keeps going or fizzles out.
GoldAlgo posted:Gold Algo here,
the NFP numbers came and it was bad for USD. Exactly what trump wanted and needed. now more pressure on Federal Reserve and Powell to cut the rate. With this NFP, the rally up in Gold will continue strongly.
It seems you assume that price goes synchronized with fundamentals, which isn't the way forex is functioning. When fundamentals matter a lot and they define some core value, the market is almost never traded at its "true value" because its primarily speculative and sentimental driven. Big guys need tons of liquidity to enter/exit their positions, and their main counterparty is retail volume as its easy to predict and manipulate. And its not some conspiracy theory, although it may sound like it, its just the way markets are being historically, its their natural stance. Its something Professionals use in our everyday trading: live sentiment data, retail positioning, and liquidity pools get targeted all the time days by days, years by years.
vovaborysko posted:GoldAlgo posted:Gold Algo here,
the NFP numbers came and it was bad for USD. Exactly what trump wanted and needed. now more pressure on Federal Reserve and Powell to cut the rate. With this NFP, the rally up in Gold will continue strongly.
It seems you assume that price goes synchronized with fundamentals, which isn't the way forex is functioning. When fundamentals matter a lot and they define some core value, the market is almost never traded at its "true value" because its primarily speculative and sentimental driven. Big guys need tons of liquidity to enter/exit their positions, and their main counterparty is retail volume as its easy to predict and manipulate. And its not some conspiracy theory, although it may sound like it, its just the way markets are being historically, its their natural stance. Its something Professionals use in our everyday trading: live sentiment data, retail positioning, and liquidity pools get targeted all the time days by days, years by years.
Gold Algo here,
I don't believe price is synced with fundamentals, but it is highly affected by it. the false or the true price in any market is set by the news and data and...Let's look at GOLD (which is not forex, brokers just let us trade it along with the PAIRS), why is it 3600? two wars, one in Europe, one in the Middle East, tariff conflicts, USA inflation, China buying Gold and...Since Gold is a safe asset, during times of conflict, the demand goes up, by people, institutes and even governments.About your other point, retailers vs Banks and institutes? They make 95% of the market and retailers are only 5%.I agree with some points you made, however fundamentals are heavy weights in this market, more important than technical if you ask me.
Gold Algo here,
Geopolitical risks, monetary policy, government spending, and technical conditions have driven gold to continue its strong, record-breaking uptrend.
⭕️ This sharp rise in gold is mainly due to large-scale buying; yet the main factors behind gold’s rally include along side with the large scale buying are:
Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, acting as a bullish catalystPolitical instability, which increases gold’s appeal as a safe-haven assetMajor buyers sustaining both physical demand and investment demandTrump’s attempts to control the Fed and push interest rates lower than they otherwise would beDisruptions in global trade order, raising economic risksDisruptions in global order related to military interventions (e.g., J.D. Vance’s comments about military action in Venezuela)Excessive government spending, putting pressure on the macroeconomic outlookTechnical analysis aligning with the bullish trend, pointing to continued parabolic movement
📌 The current trend suggests gold remains on a strong upward path, with investors closely watching major economic and political factors.
#Gold #Xauusd
Global Gold Returns to Peak Amid Escalating US-China Tensions
The gold market has regained momentum at the start of the new week, and precious metals are once again experiencing an increase in demand.
The price of gold has risen by about 1% and has surpassed $4,060 per ounce. Although a brief profit-taking moment caused a slight price drop, buyers took the opportunity and, in light of recent developments between Washington and Beijing, re-entered the market.
The verbal clash between the two countries once again highlights the volatility and instability of US economic policies, while also demonstrating that Beijing will not back down in the trade war. This is clearly evident in China’s recent threat to impose tighter controls on the export of rare earth elements.
As a result, gold has once again emerged as the main beneficiary of this tense environment, reaching a new level of $4,077 per ounce just before the start of European trading.
Meanwhile, silver has also risen by more than 2%, crossing the $50 mark and reaching $51.54. Analysts believe this move could pave the way for a new growth trajectory for this precious metal.
#GOLD
Gold Algo here,
China may have purchased far more gold than what is reported in official data, with analysts estimating that the country’s actual purchases could be up to ten times the announced figures, as Beijing intensifies efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. While China’s central bank has disclosed only small amounts this year (2.2 tons in June and 1.9 tons in July and August), most traders believe these numbers do not reflect real demand.
Analysts at Societe Generale, after examining trade flows and customs data, estimate that China may purchase up to 250 tons of gold in 2025, accounting for more than one-third of the total projected gold purchases by central banks worldwide.
The lack of transparency surrounding China’s gold accumulation has made market analysis difficult—especially since central banks are a major force behind the unprecedented surge in gold prices above $4,300 per ounce.
Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle, stated that China’s gold accumulation aligns with its long-term strategy to reduce reliance on the dollar, but emphasized that there is no reliable method to track the flows. Unlike commodities such as oil, gold is uniquely opaque, with no satellite data or pipeline information available to identify end buyers.
To make up for this lack of transparency, traders rely on indirect indicators, such as orders for newly cast 400-ounce bars with sequential serial numbers; these bars are typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, then shipped through London to China. Market participants say such evidence suggests China is accumulating far more gold than it officially reports.
Bruce Ikemizu of the Japan Bullion Market Association believes China’s gold reserves may be close to 5,000 tons, nearly double the officially reported amount.
Data from the World Gold Council shows that the share of gold in global reserves outside the U.S. has risen from 10% to 26% over the past decade, making gold the second-largest reserve asset in the world after the dollar.
Gold Algo here,
Precious metals analysts at RBC have made a major forecast and consider further increases in gold prices likely over the next two years. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) predicts that the average gold price in 2026 will be around $4,600, and will reach $5,100 in 2027.Even though gold has risen 60% so far in 2025, RBC believes this upward trend will continue. They say that central-bank buying and investment demand have fundamentally strengthened gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset.
⭕ New price table:
Gold price per ounce in mid-2026: $4,600 per ounce
Gold price per ounce at the end of 2026: $4,800 per ounce
Gold price per ounce in mid-2027: $5,100 per ounce
⭕ RBC highlights four factors underlying this bullish outlook:
1. Geopolitics: “Hostile global politics” are dividing economies and reshaping the growth outlook.
2. Impact of AI: Technological changes create more uncertainty in inflation and growth.
3. Monetary policy: Easier monetary policy is expected on the horizon, even with inflation above target.
4. Debt trap: High government debt and budget deficits remain a “persistent headwind.”
Perhaps the most interesting point for equity traders is RBC’s analysis of producer behavior. Historically, producers behave cyclically — when prices rise, they spend aggressively on mergers and investments, which destroys returns.RBC says this time is different:
Producers are focused on debt reduction and paying dividends.
The net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio across the sector is now zero (0.0×).
Profit margins for 2026 are forecast at about $1,470 per ounce (7× higher than in 2023).
Reserves are calculated using conservative prices below $2,000 (less than 50% of the current spot price).
Equity implications:Royalty companies are the winners. (A royalty company is one that receives a fixed share or monetary royalty from mine production without conducting mining itself.)
With the new commodity thesis, analyst Josh Wolfson has changed his ratings. He says royalty companies are attractive in terms of valuation and are insulated from producers’ cost risks.
Gold Algo here,
The global debt crisis has become a driver of gold price growth.The annual interest cost of government debt worldwide has reached a record $4.9 trillion.Interest costs have increased by $1.6 trillion over the past 3 years.Global debt has also grown by $55 trillion in the same period, reaching a record $346 trillion.
At the same time, gold prices have risen 142% and crossed $4,300 per ounce for the first time.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices have had nearly perfect correlation with the interest costs of government debt worldwide.
📌 As the global debt crisis intensifies, investors are rushing toward gold at full speed.
