Hello everyone, How was ya all weeks? And below is my analysis.
After a week packed with CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, and Retail Sales, today's calendar is lighter but still worth watching:
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May) – 23:30 GMT+7 – expected to remain in contraction territory but improve slightly from April.US Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) – 00:15 GMT+7 (Saturday early morning) – forecast +0.2%.Neither is a market‑mover on the scale of CPI or NFP, but they can add confirmation to the broader economic picture.
Oil – Geopolitics Still the Main Driver:
Oil prices remain supported despite the lack of fresh headlines. Iran's missile stockpile (still 70% intact) and restored Hormuz bases keep the risk premium alive. WTI is holding near 100, Brent above 105. Any unexpected headline could trigger sharp moves.
Gold – Still Below $4,650. Gold continues to trade under pressure from a strong dollar and higher‑for‑longer rate expectations. The 4,600−4,620 support zone is holding fornow, but a break below could open 4,500. Today's data is unlikely to move gold dramatically unless there's a major surprise.
Recap of the Week:
CPI: Core +0.4% vs +0.3% forecast → hotter → dollar up, gold down.PPI: In line with expectations → no major surprise.Jobless Claims: 216k vs 215k forecast → slightly higher but within range.Retail Sales: +0.3% vs +0.4% forecast → slightly soft but not alarming.Trading Takeaways for the Weekend:
Gold: Watch $4,600 support. A close below could signal further downside next week.Oil: Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Expect weekend headlines.Dollar: Strong week for USD. Consolidation likely into Monday.Give me your thoughts, thank you all
