■ U.S. stock futures are relatively stable despite Brent crude briefly breaking above $100 per barrel, but the fundamental environment remains challenging for equities.


■ The latest escalation has intensified after U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on American warships. Combined with continued disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, falling storage levels and stronger Chinese demand, the situation is keeping oil prices elevated.


➡️ Treasury yields are already reacting, with the 10-year yield around 4.81% and the 30-year around 5.26%. Persistently higher yields would be particularly challenging for the Nasdaq and other rate-sensitive growth stocks.


■ Despite these pressures, futures are showing resilience for now, with the Dow slightly lower, S&P 500 flat and Nasdaq modestly higher. This suggests the oil shock has not yet triggered broad risk-off selling.


⚡️ The key question is whether Brent can remain around or above $100.Continued oil strength combined with rising yields would increase downside pressure, while a retreat in oil and yields could allow equities to recover.


📊 Fundamental Bias: Cautious to bearish. Oil above $100 and rising Treasury yields create significant downside risk, even though U.S. futures are currently holding relatively firm.

Success in trading comes from discipline and risk management.