We’re starting the week with an important point: gold opened with a bearish gap. On Friday, we closed at 4,830, and today we opened at 4,795. That gap hasn’t closed yet, so it’s a key reference point.


All of Friday’s momentum came from the ceasefire and geopolitical noise, but the market has already cooled off. Negotiations have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz has closed again, and we’re practically back to square one. Therefore, we’re treating that move as a failed breakout and returning to trading within the range.


On the macro front, it’s a fairly quiet week. There’s no significant data today, and what little there is (PMI, retail sales, employment) will come later. So the price will continue to react mainly to headlines. Unless something significant comes up, we’ll likely continue to move sideways.


On the technical front:


We have that gap open up to 4830. As long as it remains open, it’s a very interesting area. And given gold’s current position, I believe the intention is to close that gap by retesting the range’s highs.


My plan for today:


If the price rises to 4830–4845 and we see a rejection, look to sell from there. That’s exactly where the price should react if there really isn’t enough momentum to keep rising.


Scenarios:


→Main scenario:


We remain range-bound. Choppy movements, sweep trades, and little clear direction. Patience is key here.


→Bearish scenario:


If it breaks below 4750, the most likely outcome is an extension toward 4700.


→Bullish scenario:


I would only change my approach if the price recovers Friday’s zone, closes the gap, and manages to stay above 4890. Until that happens, there is no real buying strength.


In summary:


The price is back in the range, with an upward gap yet to be closed. The 4830–4845 zone is today’s key level for determining the direction gold will take this week.