Global CRASH -this September Take your money and run or what ???
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Sep 20, 2014
342 postingan
Sep 01, 2015 at 09:47
(diedit Sep 01, 2015 at 09:57 yang lalu)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-31/russian-military-forces-arrive-syria-set-forward-operating-base-near-damascus
As I mentioned previously, there's a strong motive to have this conflict, which doesn't have anything to do with Syria.
As I mentioned previously, there's a strong motive to have this conflict, which doesn't have anything to do with Syria.
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Dec 16, 2011
268 postingan
Sep 01, 2015 at 11:20
(diedit Sep 01, 2015 at 11:22 yang lalu)
Forget Black Monday: the real stock market crash of 2015
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/11830632/Forget-Black-Monday-the-real-stock-market-crash-exposed.html
I'm selling Dollar all day long .
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/11830632/Forget-Black-Monday-the-real-stock-market-crash-exposed.html
I'm selling Dollar all day long .
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Sep 20, 2014
342 postingan
Sep 03, 2015 at 19:37
@DrVodka
This is probably the reason why dollar is so strong. It's technical, has nothing to do with long term outlook. It's the fx equivalent of a short squeeze. I wouldn't bet against it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/global-debt-deleveraging-it-our-doorstep
This is probably the reason why dollar is so strong. It's technical, has nothing to do with long term outlook. It's the fx equivalent of a short squeeze. I wouldn't bet against it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/global-debt-deleveraging-it-our-doorstep
Menjadi Anggota Sejak May 20, 2011
694 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 02:40
(diedit Sep 04, 2015 at 02:42 yang lalu)
theHand posted:
@DrVodka
This is probably the reason why dollar is so strong. It's technical, has nothing to do with long term outlook. It's the fx equivalent of a short squeeze. I wouldn't bet against it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/global-debt-deleveraging-it-our-doorstep
You think the dollar is strong because of technicals!??! What technicals precisely. Lot of 'ifs' here.
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Sep 20, 2014
342 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 07:49
I don't mean technical in terms of this indicator or that indicator. There's an issue in the market that needs to be resolved before the fundamentals can come back into play.
In this case it appears that a lot of dollars were borrowed (nearly for free) and used in say emerging markets (which would require selling dollars to convert to local currency). As the dollar gets stronger fx losses occur on whatever the money was used for. So the investment needs to be closed and dollars bought to return the free money.
Stronger the dollar gets the more this happens and you end up with what we have here where it essentially becomes a squeeze. So no matter what the fundamentals are saying, it's a technical move. And will continue till the issue is resolved, then the fundamentals will come back hard and fast.
We had exactly the same thing in 2008. That's why when we expect the dollar to be under pressure it isn't. And this is looking a hell of a lot like 2008, but with about 7 times more debt if I remember correctly.
In this case it appears that a lot of dollars were borrowed (nearly for free) and used in say emerging markets (which would require selling dollars to convert to local currency). As the dollar gets stronger fx losses occur on whatever the money was used for. So the investment needs to be closed and dollars bought to return the free money.
Stronger the dollar gets the more this happens and you end up with what we have here where it essentially becomes a squeeze. So no matter what the fundamentals are saying, it's a technical move. And will continue till the issue is resolved, then the fundamentals will come back hard and fast.
We had exactly the same thing in 2008. That's why when we expect the dollar to be under pressure it isn't. And this is looking a hell of a lot like 2008, but with about 7 times more debt if I remember correctly.
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Sep 20, 2014
342 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 09:13
I don't really know what the exact mechanism is. It doesn't matter. It's a bit like driving a modern Merc. I know there's internal combustion at work, but I don't know what all the other stuff bolted onto the engine does. Nor do I need to know. I just need to handle the things that keeps it going, like put juice when its empty.
My point is fx will do what it wants to do for reasons that might not be apparent at first. Commen wisdom is you look at the fundamentals and then trade technically in that direction.
Well that doesn't work, becuase of technical moves like this, where the fundamentals are temporariliy inconsequencial.
My point is fx will do what it wants to do for reasons that might not be apparent at first. Commen wisdom is you look at the fundamentals and then trade technically in that direction.
Well that doesn't work, becuase of technical moves like this, where the fundamentals are temporariliy inconsequencial.
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Dec 16, 2011
268 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 11:29
i 100 % agree with you theHand . its called - dead cat bounce if u know what i mean ..😎
i notice one thing .just before FEDS ( almost agreed ) to raise the interest rates - markets went CRAZY . imagine what is going to happen if they do it for real !!!
P.s can't wait to see that happen
i notice one thing .just before FEDS ( almost agreed ) to raise the interest rates - markets went CRAZY . imagine what is going to happen if they do it for real !!!
P.s can't wait to see that happen
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Sep 20, 2014
342 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 13:53
(diedit Sep 04, 2015 at 13:54 yang lalu)
I don't think a multi year trend can be called a dead cat bounce. Trillions that need to be unwound here. QE started in 2008 still going. A heck of a lot of time to print money.
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Dec 16, 2011
268 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 17:50
Dow J down 2 %
S& P down 2 %
FTSE down 2.5 %
NIKI down 2 %
this been going on for weeks now .And i don't see the end of it . soon the currencies will turn against the dollar . fundamentals are always right ( well , most of the time anyway ) .😀
S& P down 2 %
FTSE down 2.5 %
NIKI down 2 %
this been going on for weeks now .And i don't see the end of it . soon the currencies will turn against the dollar . fundamentals are always right ( well , most of the time anyway ) .😀
Menjadi Anggota Sejak May 20, 2011
694 postingan
Sep 04, 2015 at 21:32
DrVodka posted:Are you saying dollar is going to go down? Because all currencies are turning against the dollar right now except jpy and chf maybe.
Dow J down 2 %
S& P down 2 %
FTSE down 2.5 %
NIKI down 2 %
this been going on for weeks now .And i don't see the end of it . soon the currencies will turn against the dollar . fundamentals are always right ( well , most of the time anyway ) .😀
Menjadi Anggota Sejak Dec 16, 2011
268 postingan
Sep 29, 2015 at 06:02
S&P falls 2%, below 1900; Dow dips 250 points
😁😁
still no crash
😁😁
still no crash
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