Manual trading is your best way to lose money.
The logic:
1. If you can’t tell a machine how to perform your strategy, then you simply don’t have a strategy. Strategy = clear rules. No clear rules = no strategy.2. If you do have a strategy, but insist on performing it yourself, your emotions will inevitably get in the way, sooner or later. Automation is the best way to prevent it.3. Most strategies can’t be reliably back-tested manually. No reliable back-testing = loss.
بI agree with what you said, and I have been using robots for some time to avoid emotions in trading, and only logic is involved, not emotion.
Fear, greed, and impatience can cause impulsive decisions.Overconfidence, recency bias, or confirmation bias can lead to repeated mistakes.Sticking to a plan is hard when markets move quickly.Traders can be swamped by news, charts, and conflicting opinions.Human reaction time is slower than automated systems, so trades may be executed suboptimally.
animepahe572 posted:Fear, greed, and impatience can cause impulsive decisions.Overconfidence, recency bias, or confirmation bias can lead to repeated mistakes.Sticking to a plan is hard when markets move quickly.Traders can be swamped by news, charts, and conflicting opinions.Human reaction time is slower than automated systems, so trades may be executed suboptimally.
The market is unpredictable, so we must always be prepared with good money management and discipline in facing market conditions.
Pupsik posted:The logic:
1. If you can’t tell a machine how to perform your strategy, then you simply don’t have a strategy. Strategy = clear rules. No clear rules = no strategy.2. If you do have a strategy, but insist on performing it yourself, your emotions will inevitably get in the way, sooner or later. Automation is the best way to prevent it.3. Most strategies can’t be reliably back-tested manually. No reliable back-testing = loss.
That's a good point. However, automated trading also has some drawbacks. In my experience, not all manual trading logic can be implemented accurately. So I think it may vary depending on the type of trading strategy.
BambangSugiarto posted:animepahe572 posted:Fear, greed, and impatience can cause impulsive decisions.Overconfidence, recency bias, or confirmation bias can lead to repeated mistakes.Sticking to a plan is hard when markets move quickly.Traders can be swamped by news, charts, and conflicting opinions.Human reaction time is slower than automated systems, so trades may be executed suboptimally.
The market is unpredictable, so we must always be prepared with good money management and discipline in facing market conditions.
In my opinion, nothing a robot can do can guarantee this security well.
ifc1982turkiye posted:BambangSugiarto posted:animepahe572 posted:Fear, greed, and impatience can cause impulsive decisions.Overconfidence, recency bias, or confirmation bias can lead to repeated mistakes.Sticking to a plan is hard when markets move quickly.Traders can be swamped by news, charts, and conflicting opinions.Human reaction time is slower than automated systems, so trades may be executed suboptimally.
The market is unpredictable, so we must always be prepared with good money management and discipline in facing market conditions.
In my opinion, nothing a robot can do can guarantee this security well.
Robot can do anything that it is programmed by a human to do.
ifc1982turkiye posted:BambangSugiarto posted:animepahe572 posted:Fear, greed, and impatience can cause impulsive decisions.Overconfidence, recency bias, or confirmation bias can lead to repeated mistakes.Sticking to a plan is hard when markets move quickly.Traders can be swamped by news, charts, and conflicting opinions.Human reaction time is slower than automated systems, so trades may be executed suboptimally.
The market is unpredictable, so we must always be prepared with good money management and discipline in facing market conditions.
In my opinion, nothing a robot can do can guarantee this security well.
Yes, robots work according to their rules and cannot anticipate or initiate action if something unexpected happens. It might also be a good idea to combine robots and manual trading during times of high volatility.
Solid points. As someone who develops automated trading systems, I can confirm that point #2 is where most manual traders fail — not because they lack knowledge, but because emotions inevitably creep in. Fear during drawdowns, greed when things go well, revenge trading after a loss. A bot simply executes the rules without psychological interference.
However, I'd add a caveat to point #3: backtesting is necessary but not sufficient. Curve-fitting is a real trap, and past performance in a backtest doesn't guarantee future results. The key is combining solid backtesting with realistic expectations and continuous monitoring.
Automation isn't magic — it's discipline enforced by code.
Greg081 posted:Solid points. As someone who develops automated trading systems, I can confirm that point #2 is where most manual traders fail — not because they lack knowledge, but because emotions inevitably creep in. Fear during drawdowns, greed when things go well, revenge trading after a loss. A bot simply executes the rules without psychological interference.
However, I'd add a caveat to point #3: backtesting is necessary but not sufficient. Curve-fitting is a real trap, and past performance in a backtest doesn't guarantee future results. The key is combining solid backtesting with realistic expectations and continuous monitoring.
Automation isn't magic — it's discipline enforced by code.
Exactly, my friend, you said a very good thing.
ifc1982turkiye posted:Greg081 posted:Solid points. As someone who develops automated trading systems, I can confirm that point #2 is where most manual traders fail — not because they lack knowledge, but because emotions inevitably creep in. Fear during drawdowns, greed when things go well, revenge trading after a loss. A bot simply executes the rules without psychological interference.
However, I'd add a caveat to point #3: backtesting is necessary but not sufficient. Curve-fitting is a real trap, and past performance in a backtest doesn't guarantee future results. The key is combining solid backtesting with realistic expectations and continuous monitoring.
Automation isn't magic — it's discipline enforced by code.
Exactly, my friend, you said a very good thing.
I agree. Backtesting must include optimization + out-of-sample validation
Why are we looking down upon human intelligence here? If you can define rules for a machine, you can also follow those rules yourself with discipline and a checklist. Emotions are a risk, sure, but so are curve-fitted EAs that blow up when the regime changes. At the end of the day, a robot is just executing logic a human designed , the edge still comes from the human thinking, testing and adapting, whether the click is manual or automated.
ifc1982turkiye posted:BambangSugiarto posted:animepahe572 posted:Fear, greed, and impatience can cause impulsive decisions.Overconfidence, recency bias, or confirmation bias can lead to repeated mistakes.Sticking to a plan is hard when markets move quickly.Traders can be swamped by news, charts, and conflicting opinions.Human reaction time is slower than automated systems, so trades may be executed suboptimally.
The market is unpredictable, so we must always be prepared with good money management and discipline in facing market conditions.
In my opinion, nothing a robot can do can guarantee this security well.
Yes, I agree with you. In the long term, we should rely on ourselves to be able to resolve this as a long-term learning experience.
I get the point, but this feels too absolute. A rules based strategy can be executed manually with a checklist and hard risk caps. Automation can remove some emotion, sure, but it also adds model and regime change risk. How many automated systems have you seen survive a full volatility cycle without curve fitting, and do you have any verified live results?
forexscoutx posted:Why are we looking down upon human intelligence here? If you can define rules for a machine, you can also follow those rules yourself with discipline and a checklist. Emotions are a risk, sure, but so are curve-fitted EAs that blow up when the regime changes. At the end of the day, a robot is just executing logic a human designed , the edge still comes from the human thinking, testing and adapting, whether the click is manual or automated.
Why would we curve fit? That's why we test out-of-sample -- to make sure that we don't.
If you have clear trading rules, then all of this will be resolved. You just need to set it up, write it down in Meta, and leave it, then you will be free from greed and worry.Another important factor is that you trust your broker to act honestly. I have proven this.
Manual trading can be challenging, especially for beginners, because it requires strong discipline, market knowledge, and emotional control. Many traders struggle with consistency, which can lead to losses over time. However, with proper risk management, strategy, and continuous learning, manual trading can still be approached more effectively rather than relying purely on luck.
Well that’s a bit of a generalized take. Some parts are true, but it’s not that simple. Long before automation, many traders were consistently profitable trading manually. The real issue isn’t emotions, it’s lack of discipline. If someone has clear rules and follows them properly, both manual and automated trading can work. Automation has its advantages, but it’s not flawless either. Execution, logic, and even small glitches can impact results. Choosing manual trading doesn’t mean a trader lacks a strategy.
By your logic, no manual trader can be profitable long term. I know several who are, including myself. Automation is a tool, not a requirement. Discipline is what matters, not whether a machine clicks the button.
