Caiman System (By MichaelCaiman )
Caiman System Discussion
What do you think about adding oil to our trading portfolio? It’s quite volatile at the moment, and it would be great to include it as a trading instrument.
I will be looking to open short positions in the stock market following a local correction, against the backdrop of the geopolitical crisis
A strong rebound in oil prices following a downward correction. Gold is falling in price across the market once again. The DXY is strengthening
Bitcoin could test the 60k level. I’m currently shorting with a tight stop-loss and a good take-profit.
An excellent entry point. Bitcoin is starting to fall after a long period of consolidation. The immediate target is the 60k level.
Trump is driving market volatility. At the moment, all the news is focused on the Middle East. Gold may rise in price, but shares and cryptocurrencies are set to fall.
It’s a public holiday in the US today. The markets are closed. We’re keeping a very close eye on cryptocurrencies, which are poised for a sharp fall should the situation in the Middle East escalate.
The key macroeconomic event of the day is the March NFP data. Forecast: 60,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.4%. This is the first significant macroeconomic signal since the onset of the oil shock, and its impact on the markets will be twofold.
Weak data will heighten fears of a recession, whilst strong data may temporarily bolster risk appetite. At the same time, the market will be monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz — if tensions escalate into actual action, volatility will return regardless of the NFP figures.
Oil reserves in Western countries are still at an acceptable level, but the volume of oil in transit has plummeted, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, countries will have to deplete their reserves rapidly.
Following today’s NFP release, the dollar has strengthened across the board. We’ll see what happens over the weekend
The main event yesterday was the release of US labour market data. March’s Non-Farm Payrolls figures showed 178,000 new jobs, triple the forecast of 60,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries immediately jumped to 4.35%. As a result, we will have to wait even longer for the first rate cut. It would seem that a strong labour market — a strong dollar — puts pressure on BTC.
US intelligence warns that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, AS CONTROL OVER THE WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT OIL ARTERY IS THEIR ONLY REAL LEVER OF INFLUENCE OVER THE US!
Bitcoin spent the week living by the headlines – every statement from Trump rewrote the trading narrative, whilst macroeconomic data painted an alarming picture of stagflation. A 1.63% decline over the week is modest in terms of figures, but significant in context. The technical signal of an expired flat pattern, weak ETF inflows and geopolitical unpredictability are creating an unstable foundation. The week of 6–12 April and the following two weeks will be challenging.
Bitcoin has surged, but the targets remain unchanged. The global outlook remains bearish. Gold is holding steady. Everyone is waiting for tomorrow’s news
I still have a short position on Bitcoin. I’m keeping an eye on whether gold will rise further
BTC could soon fall below $60,000 due to geopolitical tensions and tough macroeconomic conditions
Trump is leading ‘Operation Epic Rage’, whilst the Fed is not cutting interest rates...
Trump is considering taking control of Iran’s oil sector in order to use this as a means of exerting pressure in relations with China
