Caiman System (By MichaelCaiman )
Caiman System Discussion
Today is a day of volatile news from the Middle East. We are preparing to exit risky assets
Talks between the US and Iran may take place on 20 April.
There remain differences between the parties on fundamental issues.
Despite all the statements, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed
Iran has not yet agreed to the next round of talks with the US due to the naval blockade and excessive demands.
CNN reports that the US has not yet confirmed the talks either
No new date has been set for talks between Iran and the US; one will only be scheduled once the framework conditions have been agreed -- Iranian Foreign Ministry
Traders on Polymarket have today started actively betting that WTI crude oil will rise above $100 again this month
The conflict in the Middle East threatens to drive up inflation and slow down the Australian economy
Last week, investors sharply increased their long positions in US equities
The scale and magnitude of the increase in long positions last week were comparable to the euphoria surrounding the US elections in November 2024
A powerful divergence has formed between what is happening in the financial markets and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Stock markets fell significantly in March amid the halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Now the strait remains closed, yet many stock indices have fully recovered their losses, and some have even hit new all-time highs.
The Trump administration will begin refunding $166 billion in tariffs
In the past, traders in the oil market used to track ‘physical flows’ to inform their trading decisions. Now they track Trump’s tweets
Trump has stated that he is confident Iran will take part in the talks in Islamabad.
The Iranian side has not yet confirmed its participation.
According to media reports, the talks are set to begin either today or tomorrow, and it remains unclear whether Iran will take part or not.
April was the worst month for DeFi in terms of losses from hacks. The main contributors were attacks on the Drift and Kelp DAO protocols (total losses of nearly $600 million). Since the start of 2026, the sector’s losses have reached $795 million
A reasonable oil price of $80–100 over the next 3–6 months
Oil prices could rise to $170 if the situation escalates
Iran sees signs that the US is prepared to lift the blockade — AP News
Iran’s UN representative: Our government has “received some indication” that the US is prepared to end the blockade
Iran has received ‘some indications’ that the US is prepared to lift the blockade
Participants at the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit agreed that the world has not yet realised that a genuine oil crisis is looming due to the situation surrounding Iran
BTC > $79,000
Iran currently has no plans to hold talks with the US on Friday
There is still a good chance that the rebound in the cryptocurrency market will continue, leading to a return to January’s levels. It is there that it will become clear whether the bear market will resume or whether the bottom has already been reached in this cycle. For now, this is the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
