Sabika (By Techno62 )
| Gain : | -57.51% |
| Drawdown | 97.78% |
| pips: | 13827.4 |
| Trades | 125 |
| Won: |
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| Lost: |
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| Type: | Real |
| Leverage: | 1:500 |
| Trading: | Manual |
Sabika Discussion
Hi
Gold's stuck in a tight coil right now. Spot's at 4379.3, barely moved from the 4380.8 print an hour ago — basically chopping in a 4378-4385 pocket after that wick down to 4369 failed to follow through. Buyers tried 4385 twice (16:40, 17:05) and got turned away both times, sellers tried pushing back under 4380 and couldn't hold it either. Volume's dried up too, sub-1700 on most of the last dozen candles vs 1900+ earlier — classic pre-data compression, nobody's committing size here.
RSI on the exec TF is sitting at 43, basically unchanged from 44 an hour back, so no fresh momentum push either way. Donchian bands haven't budged (4404.34 / 4369.08), which tells you the same thing — range is set, waiting for a catalyst.
Cross-asset read is a bit murky: DXY ticked back up to 99.88 from 99.81, dollar bid returning, but gold isn't really reacting to it — correlation's gone soft, which usually happens right before a big print. Silver drifted down to 64.72 in step with the dollar move, so that leg's still intact even if gold isn't following.
No news since the last check, CPI's still about 19 hours out (Aug 12, 12:30 UTC). Nothing's triggered from the earlier plan — price hasn't tagged either the 4404/4411 supply zone or the 4356/4373 demand zone with any conviction. Right now this is just range-bound drift into the print, nothing tradeable off the setups yet.
XAUUSD — Gold eyes CPI showdown after resistance rejection at $4,424
Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around $4,410 after a strong Asia/early-London rally (+41 from today's open near $4,368) got rejected twice at $4,424.2, a level backed by Donchian upper band, S/R confluence and a volume-confirmed climax reversal (two candles at 1.35x–1.4x average volume marked the top). Price has since pulled back into a $4,408–$4,419 consolidation zone.
Multi-timeframe read: M5 momentum is cooling (RSI ~46-48) after the rejection, but H1/H4/D1 remain firmly bullish (RSI 60/68/70) — this looks like a healthy pullback within an intact uptrend (+~10% over the past month), not a reversal signal yet.
Cross-asset note: Interestingly, this leg wasn't dollar-driven — DXY stayed flat/firm (~99.8) while Silver (+4.9%) and WTI Crude (+5.8%) rallied alongside gold. Points to a geopolitical risk premium (Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines) rather than USD weakness as the main driver.
Big catalyst today: US July CPI drops at 12:30 UTC — consensus 3.4% YoY headline (down from 3.5%), core 2.5% YoY. Last month's cooler-than-expected print (3.5% vs 3.8% forecast) sent DXY -0.6% and gold rallying, so the bar for a "dovish surprise" repeat isn't huge — but WTI's rebound this week raises some upside risk to the MoM print.
Levels to watch:
Resistance: $4,423–4,424 (key, rejected twice)Support: $4,398 → $4,384A clean break above $4,424 on strong volume opens $4,440–4,460. A failure to hold $4,398 targets $4,384, potentially $4,360 on a hot CPI surprise.
⚠️ Market analysis for informational purposes only — not trading advice. High volatility expected around the CPI release.
Gold is trading a wide, news-driven range today after the July US CPI print landed in-line but reignited hawkish Fed repricing for September. Price spiked to $4,449.68 in the Asian session on Iran-US tension headlines, then reversed hard into London on renewed USD strength, tagging a low of $4,364.11 before buyers stepped back in.
We're watching $4,396–$4,400 as the key intraday resistance — price rejected there twice this morning — with $4,364 as the pivot support that's held on two tests so far. The bigger picture remains constructive: the H4/D1 trend structure is still making higher highs and higher lows off the early-August breakout, so today reads as a corrective pause inside an intact uptrend rather than a reversal, provided $4,364 holds.
Next catalysts on the radar: US PCE on Aug 26 and NFP on Sep 4, both likely to reset the September Fed-hike pricing that's currently underpinning the Dollar.
We track setups like this live and manage risk around these exact levels — follow along if that process is useful to you.
Trading involves risk of loss; past performance does not guarantee future results.
Gold consolidating after a wild week — eyes on FOMC Minutes next
Wrapping up the week on XAUUSD and man, this one had some whiplash. We printed a fresh weekly high at 4,449 mid-week, then got dumped all the way down to 4,311 during Friday's Asian session (thin liquidity + profit taking after that parabolic run from the June lows). Bounced hard right back though, closed the week at 4,376.
What's actually driving this: US data has been coming in soft all week — CPI cooled again, PPI missed, and Retail Sales came in under forecast on Friday. Classic dovish combo, and gold/silver both loved it. Silver actually outperformed gold by a good margin this week, which tells me this is more of a broad metals move than a pure "dollar is dying" story.
Structurally I'm not calling this a breakout though — we're still way off the May highs around 4,770, so to me this reads as a recovery leg out of that June selloff, not price discovery into new territory. Weekly RSI backs that up too, still under 40.
Next real catalyst is FOMC Minutes Wednesday (Aug 19). If it leans dovish, 4,450+ is back in play. If we get any hawkish surprise, I'd watch 4,310 as the line in the sand — lose that and we're probably heading toward 4,260ish.
Anyone else playing this from the long side, or are you fading the highs here? Curious what the room thinks going into next week.
