China Exports Growth Beats Expectations

(RTTNews) - China exports growth accelerated more-than-expected in September on strong demand for hi-tech products, suggesting that overseas demand will help counteract the economic slowdown brought on by domestic demand and investment.

Exports logged a sharp annual growth of 36.3 percent in September, bigger than the 25.0 percent rise in August, the General Administration of Customs reported Wednesday. Shipments were expected to grow 25.5 percent.

Import growth accelerated to 31.0 percent in September from 28.2 percent in August and exceeded the forecast of 24.5 percent.

As a result, the trade surplus reached $133.5 billion in September, which was above the forecast $116.8 billion.

Regional export performance was particularly robust. Exports to the US grew 39.6 percent in September and that to EU surged 25.3 percent. Shipments to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations advanced 52.3 percent.

The trade surplus widened to $938.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026, putting the country on track to surpass last year's record surplus of $1.2 trillion.

ING economist Lynn Song observed that the import growth remained concentrated in technology products, rather than reflecting a broad-based recovery across sectors.

"Successful trade talks with the US and EU over the past month are likely to keep the commercial environment relatively stable through the end of the year," said Song.

"As China's growth looks increasingly imbalanced, a slowdown in the tech capex cycle or new tariff shocks are the key risks to monitor moving forward for the year ahead," Song added.

The International Monetary Fund projected China's economic growth to slow to 4.5 percent in 2026, as higher oil prices, together with protracted uncertainty and structural headwinds are expected to weigh on activity. Nonetheless, policy support would prevent a sharper slowdown, the IMF said. For 2027, growth is seen at 4.0 percent.