Japan Industrial Output Rebounds; Tokyo Inflation Accelerates

(RTTNews) - Japan's industrial production rebounded at a stronger-than-expected pace at the end of the third quarter and inflation in Tokyo accelerated further in October, official data revealed Friday.

Industrial output advanced 2.2 percent month-on-month, in contrast to the 1.5 percent drop in August, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. Output was forecast to grow moderately by 1.5 percent.

On a yearly basis, industrial production grew for the first time in three months. Output logged 3.4 percent expansion after a 1.6 percent drop in August. Shipments and inventories increased 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, inventory ratio dropped 2.3 percent.

According to the Survey of Production Forecast in manufacturing, production is expected to increase in October and decrease in November.

In October, Tokyo inflation rose to 2.8 percent from 2.5 percent in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported. The core CPI inflation also rose to 2.8 percent from 2.5 percent.

Retail sales rebounded 0.3 percent from a month ago in September, reversing a 0.9 percent drop in August, data from the METI showed. On a yearly basis, retail sales moved up 0.5 percent, in contrast to the 0.9 percent decline in the previous month.

Another report from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.6 percent in September.

ING economist Min Joo Kang noted that both industrial production and retail sales fell in the third quarter, indicating a GDP contraction for third quarter of 2025. However, a rebound in September points to a gradual economic recovery in the current quarter.

As growth likely bottomed out toward quarter-end and price pressures continue to intensify, the Bank of Japan may consider an earlier rate increase, the economist added.