ATFX Market Outlook 11th November 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 11th November 2025

U.S. Government Shutdown Likely to End; Focus Turns to U.K. Jobs Report

Market Highlight

The U.S. Senate’s compromise bill has cleared an initial hurdle, raising hopes that the most extended government shutdown in U.S. history could end this week. U.S. stocks surged on Monday, led by strong gains in heavyweight AI-related companies, including Nvidia and Palantir. Signs that the federal government may soon resume operations lifted market risk sentiment, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.81%, the S&P 500 rising 1.54%, and the Nasdaq jumping 2.27%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 99.59. The euro edged down 0.03% against the dollar to 1.1561.

Gold prices jumped nearly 3%, hitting a more than two-week high, as weak U.S. economic data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Spot gold rose 2.9% to $4,115.68 per ounce, after briefly touching its highest level since October 24. International oil prices rebounded as analysts focused on potential disruptions to refined product supplies caused by new U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, though forecasts of crude oversupply limited gains.

Key Outlook

With the U.S. observing Veterans Day on Tuesday, trading activity may be subdued, although U.S. stock markets will remain open. Investors will continue to monitor developments in Washington regarding the end of the government shutdown, which could further support risk appetite. On the data front, the U.K. will release its latest unemployment figures. The previous rate rose to 4.8%, the highest since May 2021, and markets expect the latest reading to climb further to 4.9%. Such an outcome may strengthen expectations for Bank of England rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the British pound.

Key Data and Events Today

15:00 GB Unemployment Rate SEP ** 

18:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index NOV **  

Key Data and Events Coming Week: 

15:00 EU GERMANY CPI  Final OCT ** 

20:00 OPEC Monthly Report ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1592/1.1616

· Support: 1.1515/1.1490

EUR/USD held steady around 1.1550 as speculation over a U.S. shutdown deal limited the Euro’s gains. Weak U.S. labour data reinforced expectations for a December Fed rate cut, but cautious ECB comments kept traders restrained. Immediate resistance lies near 1.1592, with support at 1.1515.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3231/1.3274

· Support: 1.3092/1.3049

GBP/USD hovered just below 1.32 after extending a four-day rally, supported by strong risk appetite and expectations for easing U.S. funding tensions. Traders are now eyeing the upcoming U.K. labour data, with wage growth expected to soften slightly. A break above 1.3231 may open the door toward 1.33, the nearest support level sits at 1.3092.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 155.08/155.69

· Support: 153.28/152.53

USD/JPY strengthened to around 154.10 as hopes for an imminent U.S. government reopening boosted dollar demand. While BoJ hike uncertainty continues to weigh on the Yen, expectations of Japan’s ¥65B stimulus package also capped its upside. Support is seen near 153.28, resistance around 155.08.

US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)

· Resistance: 61.03/61.82

· Support: 59.28/58.49

WTI crude hovered around $59.8/bbl, trapped in a tight consolidation range between $59.28 and $61.031111. The market remains in a tug-of-war between oversupply fears and refined fuel shortages. A breakout above $61.03 may trigger a short-term recovery toward $62.5, while failure to hold $59.28 could open the door for a deeper pullback toward $58.0.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4186/4218

· Support: 4052/4020

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 51.39/51.85

-Support: 49.43/48.85

Gold extended its bullish momentum, climbing to around $4,135/oz — its strongest level in two weeks — as rate-cut expectations and easing U.S. shutdown fears fueled demand for risk hedging. Technical structure shows firm support at $4,052, while bulls may aim for $4,186–$4,218 if momentum sustains above this breakout zone.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 47744/48044

· Support: 47054/46748

The Dow futures rebounded to around 47,370, climbing 0.8% as optimism over a U.S. shutdown deal buoyed sentiment. The break above the descending trendline confirms renewed bullish momentum, with short-term support at 47,054. A sustained push higher could target the 47,744 resistance zone.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25950/26179

· Support: 25193/24960

The NAS100 surged 2.27%, marking its strongest session since May as AI heavyweights like Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla led a broad tech rebound. The index regained footing above 25,000, signalling renewed bullish strength, with resistance seen near 25,950 if momentum holds.

BTC        

· Resistance: 109972/111493

· Support: 103530/102035

Bitcoin climbed to around $106,400, extending its weekend rebound as optimism over an end to the U.S. shutdown and a U.S.–China trade breakthrough improved risk sentiment. The pair remains supported above $103,530, with upside potential toward $109,972 if buyers hold momentum.

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