ATFX Market Outlook 12th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 12th August 2025

All Eyes on U.S. CPI Tonight – Make-or-Break Moment for September Rate Cut

Market HighlightA White House official said that President Trump has signed an executive order to extend the U.S.-China tariff truce for another 90 days. U.S. stock markets closed lower on Monday as investors awaited this week’s U.S. inflation data to assess the interest rate outlook. The Dow Jones fell 0.45%, the S&P 500 lost 0.25%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%.

The U.S. dollar strengthened across the board, with markets focusing on tonight’s inflation report to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 98.52. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 148.085. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.16123, and the pound slipped 0.2% to $1.34335.

Gold fell after President Trump ruled out tariffs on imported bullion, with investors awaiting the U.S. inflation report for Fed policy cues. Spot gold slid 1.6% to $3,344.15/oz. Oil prices ended little changed as markets eyed this week’s U.S.-Russia talks on the Ukraine war.

Key Outlook

In the Asian session, attention is on the RBA’s interest rate decision. Softer June inflation and an unexpected deterioration in July’s employment data have strengthened market expectations for a 25-basis-point cut to 3.60%. Investors will also look for signals on the RBA’s policy outlook in the accompanying statement. In the evening, focus shifts to the U.S. July CPI. With retailers gradually raising prices on goods affected by higher import tariffs, inflationary pressures are expected to pick up. Market consensus forecasts headline CPI at 2.8% y/y (previous 2.7%), monthly CPI at 0.3% (previous 0.2%), and core CPI at 3% y/y (last 2.9%). A moderate increase in line with expectations would likely bolster market confidence in a September Fed rate cut.

Key Data and Events Today:

12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***

14:00 GB Claimant Count Rate JULY **

14:30 RBA Press Conference ***

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment AUG**

20:30 US CPI JULY ***

Tomorrow: 

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***

07:50 JP PPI JULY **

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI JUL **

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1683/1.1730

· Support: 1.1542/1.1483

EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.1612 as broad USD strength ahead of the U.S. CPI report weighed on the pair. Price remains capped by a descending trendline, with sellers defending the 1.1683 resistance. A sustained break below 1.1600 could open the way toward the 1.1542 support, keeping the broader bearish bias intact.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3523/1.3590

· Support: 1.3364/1.3311

GBP/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.3433 as the stronger dollar and investor caution ahead of key UK GDP and U.S. CPI data later this week pressured the pair. Technically, prices consolidate above the 1.3364 support zone, with a potential bullish scenario if this level holds, targeting the 1.3523 resistance.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.99/149.73

· Support: 147.79/147.19

USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 148.09 as the dollar strengthened broadly, while yen demand was muted amid Japan’s public holiday. Technically, price is holding above the 147.79 support and an ascending trendline, suggesting potential upside toward 148.99 if the bullish structure remains intact.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 65.55/66.22

· Support: 62.44/61.78

WTI crude rose 0.13% to $63.96, stabilizing after recent losses as markets awaited U.S.-Russia peace talks on Ukraine. UBS cut its Brent year-end forecast to $62, citing resilient supply. Technically, price is testing a descending trendline near $63.20; a breakout could open the path toward $65.55.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3376/3392

· Support: 3338/3322

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.25/38.64

· Support: 36.97/36.57

Spot gold dropped 1.2% to $3,358.33 after President Trump confirmed the U.S. would not impose tariffs on imported gold bars. Market attention turned to the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which could influence expectations for a September Fed rate cut.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44292/44655

· Support: 43494/43137

The Dow futures fell 0.45% to 43,975.09, weighed by caution ahead of the U.S. CPI release and geopolitical uncertainties. Technically, the index consolidates below the 44,292 resistance, near the intersection of the rising and descending trendlines. A failure to break higher could see a pullback toward the 43,494 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23693/23801

· Support: 23453/23348

The NAS100 fell 0.3% to 21,385.40 after Nvidia and AMD agreed to remit 15% of advanced chip export sales revenue to the U.S. government. Technically, the index holds a bullish bias above the trendline, with resistance at 23,693 and support at 23,453. A break above resistance could extend gains, while a drop below support may weaken momentum.

BTC

· Resistance: 120702/121645

· Support: 117715/ 116788

Bitcoin briefly surged past $122,000 before easing to around $119,500, approaching its all-time high. On-chain data indicates the rally is mainly retail-driven, with whale activity subdued from Q2 2025. Technically, BTC is holding above the $117,715 support, with potential to retest $120,702; however, a break below support could trigger a short-term correction.

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