ATFX ​Market Outlook 13th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 13th October 2025

Trump Revives U.S.-China Trade War, Markets Flock Back to Safe Havens

Market Highlight

U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1 reignited fears over how a renewed trade war could impact the U.S. economy. The Dow Jones fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 3.5%. U.S. Treasury yields slid to multi-week lows, dragging the U.S. Dollar down as well.

Gold prices climbed on Friday as Trump’s warning of new tariffs on China accelerated flows into safe-haven assets. Spot gold settled 1.1% higher at $4,017.34 per ounce. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil futures tumbled more than 3% as the tariff threat further darkened demand prospects for an already oversupplied market.

Key Outlook

On Monday, focus remains on how the renewed U.S.-China trade war may drive safe-haven sentiment. Investors will closely watch OPEC’s monthly oil market report. With OPEC+ opting for cautious production increases in November, any shift in its demand and supply outlook will be critical for oil markets.

Key Data and Events Today:

Japan, Canada Holiday

11:00 CN Balance of Trade SEP **

18:00 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report ** 

Tomorrow:

08:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final SEP ** 

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate AUG ** 

16:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **  

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index OCT **  

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index SEP **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1659/1.1687

· Support: 1.1566/1.1539

EUR/USD rose 0.38% to 1.1607, though French political turmoil led to its most significant weekly drop since July. Technically, the pair broke below its rising channel and is capped near 1.1659, with risks pointing to another test of 1.1566 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3391/1.3422

· Support: 1.3323/1.3291

GBP/USD slid to 1.3280, a two-month low, as UK fiscal concerns weighed on the pound while the USD held firm on safe-haven demand. Technically, resistance stands near 1.3391, with price likely to consolidate around the descending trendline on H4 before retesting support around 1.3323.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 152.79/153.28

· Support: 151.14/150.64

USD/JPY fell 0.86% to 151.73 but still gained 2.9% weekly, the largest since Sept 2024. Japan’s finance minister issued verbal warnings against excessive yen moves. Technically, resistance stands at 152.79, while holding above 151.14 keeps the pair biased to the upside.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 60.48/61.05

· Support: 58.65/58.08

WTI crude fell 4.24% to $58.90, the lowest since May, as Trump’s tariff threats and rising OPEC supply weighed on demand outlook. Technically, resistance is seen near $60.48, while a break below $58.65 could open the door to deeper losses.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4086/4103

· Support: 4016/4002

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 50.81/51.22

-Support: 49.83/49.51

Gold surged near $4,060/oz, hitting a record high on strong safe-haven demand. On the technical front, the metal holds above its rising trendline; as long as $4,016 remains intact, consolidation could fuel another push toward $4,086 resistance.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45785/45973

· Support: 45296/45152

The Dow Futures fell 1.90% to 45,479.60, extending weekly losses as Trump’s tariff remarks fueled risk-off sentiment. Technically, the index broke sharply below its rising channel lower boundary and consolidated near 45,785; a drop under 45,296 could trigger further downside pressure.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24460/24579

· Support: 24079/23959

The NAS100 plunged 3.56%, its worst weekly performance since April, with tech stocks sliding and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 6.3%. Technically, the index broke below 24,460 support, accelerating its decline; failed rebounds could expose the 24,079 area as the next support zone.

BTC        

· Resistance: 119051/120170

· Support: 112200/110837

Bitcoin dropped over 10% last week, last seen at $110,745, as Trump’s tariff and export-control threats fueled risk aversion, pressuring digital assets. Technically, BTC found support near 112,200 and rebounded; a break above 119,051 could restore momentum toward the channel midline and new highs.

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