ATFX Market Outlook 14th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 14th April 2025

Gold Surpasses $3,200: Global CPI & Central Banks in Focus

Market HighlightU.S. stocks surged on Friday as major banks began reporting Q1 earnings, concluding a volatile week marked by trade tensions. All three major indices recorded substantial weekly gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow experiencing their largest rebound since November 2023. However, consumer confidence declined in April to its lowest level in nearly three years, while inflation expectations surged.

The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, with the dollar index dropping 0.288% to 100.23, reflecting its most significant weekly decline since early last month. The dollar reached a ten-year low against the Swiss franc and a three-year low against the euro. The euro rose 0.85%, while the pound increased by 0.67%.

Gold prices surged over 6% for the week, driven by a weaker dollar and rising recession fears. After hitting a record $3,245.28, they climbed to $3,236.21 per ounce. Oil prices rose over $1 following U.S. Energy Secretary Wright's comments regarding the blockage of Iran's oil exports.

Key OutlookWatch the U.S. March consumer inflation expectations today, as they may rise due to tariffs. Also, pay attention to OPEC's monthly report on the oil market, which could show weakened demand amid the tariff conflict.

Key Data and Events Today:

12:30 JP Industrial Production YoY FEB ** 

19:00 OPEC Monthly Report *** 

23:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations MAR ** 

Tomorrow

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate FEB **

16:00 IEA Monthly Report *** 

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index APR ** 

20:30 CA Core CPI YoY MAR *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1442 / 1.1472

· Support: 1.1311 / 1.1280

The euro strengthened significantly against the US dollar last Friday, marking its largest weekly gain since March and hitting a three-year high of 1.1474. Despite a lower opening this morning, it continued to rise. Investors are cautious, awaiting potential interest rate cuts from the ECB this week.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3208 / 1.3266

· Support: 1.3017 / 1.2958

The sterling gained strength against the U.S. dollar for four consecutive days, reaching a peak of 1.3145 last Friday. This creates a short-term downward trend line, raising questions about the possibility of further rebounds. This morning, the exchange rate attempted to break through the 1.3100 mark. It could attract buying interest if it successfully breaks this level, with the next key target at 1.3200.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.97 / 144.61

· Support: 141.81 / 141.30

The USD/JPY pair experienced a two-day decline last Friday, reaching its lowest point since late September and dropping by over 2% for the week. Although it opened higher this morning, it fell again, breaking below the 144 and 143 levels. Key support is around 142, with a critical low near 141.64.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 63.88 / 64.90

· Support: 59.47 / 58.43

The US Energy Secretary indicated that the US could stop Iran's oil exports, boosting market sentiment. Crude oil surpassed $60 last Friday but continued its weekly decline. It remains in a low range, facing resistance near the 10-day moving average at $63.50 if it continues to rise today.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3250 / 3274

· Support: 3193 / 3168

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.25/ 32.69

· Support: 31.36 / 30.80

Despite improved market risk appetite last Friday, spot gold continued to rise, driven by a weakening US dollar and concerns about the US economy, reaching a new all-time high of $3,245. Although it retreated slightly in Asian trading this morning, there is still potential for further gains, with resistance at $3,250 and above.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41183 / 41904

· Support: 38984/ 38076

Last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower but quickly turned positive, with all three major indexes finishing higher. The Dow Jones reached an intraday low of nearly 39,200 before exceeding 40,000, slightly above the 10-day moving average. If it remains above this level for stronger rebounds, with resistance at the 20-day moving average around 41,100.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19314/ 19752

· Support: 17980 / 17429

Last Friday, major tech stocks surged, with Tesla rising over 22%, NVIDIA over 18%, and Apple over 15%, lifting Nasdaq by nearly 1.9%. The outlook improved with a breakthrough above the 10-day moving average, with resistance at 19,100 and support below 18,000.

BTC

· Resistance: 86452/ 88534

· Support: 81501 / 79841

Bitcoin rose to $83,832.7 and is now around $84,438, consolidating between $83,500 and $86,000. A breakout above $86,000 could reach $87,500, while a drop below $83,500 may target $81,500. Bitcoin ETFs saw $877 million in outflows, except for Grayscale’s inflows. Watch these levels for directions.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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