ATFX Market Outlook 14th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 14th March 2025 

Markets Rattle as Correction Hits Stocks, Gold Soars Near $3,000

Market HighlightU.S. equities plummeted sharply on Thursday, with the S&P 500 closing 10.1% below its record high of February 19, officially entering a correction phase. Cooling inflation data failed to alleviate investor anxiety, as escalating tariff tensions heightened concerns about renewed inflation and a potential economic downturn. The Dow fell by 1.3%, the S&P 500 slid by 1.39%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.96%.

The U.S. Dollar strengthened against most major peers, rebounding as traders consolidated positions following a week-long sell-off. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to 103.80. EUR/USD fell 0.28% to 1.0856, though it still hovered near a five-month high.

Gold surged to a fresh all-time high, approaching the $3,000 milestone, propelled by increasing trade uncertainty and persistent expectations for Fed rate cuts. Spot gold jumped 1.9% to $2,986.93 per ounce, marking the 12th record high this year. Oil prices declined by over 1% as markets considered macroeconomic headwinds, including tariff-driven demand risks and geopolitical uncertainty related to a possible Russia–Ukraine ceasefire proposal.

Key OutlookAttention now turns to the UK’s January GDP report, which pleasantly surprised at the end of 2024. Continued growth into early 2025 could lend political momentum to the Labour Party and bolster further GBP strength, particularly as think tanks forecast 1.5% UK GDP growth for this year. Later this evening, markets will also monitor the preliminary U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March—any weakness may signal increasing worries regarding trade policy and indicate a third consecutive monthly decline.

[Financial Data and Events of Significant Concern]

15:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final FEB *** 

15:00 GB GDP & Industrial Production JAN ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAR *** Bearish USD and US Stock Indices

Key Data and Events Coming Week

US Retail Sales on Monday

CA CPI on Tuesday

BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, EU CPI on Wednesday

Fed Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference on Thursday

JP Core CPI and CA Retail Sales on Friday

EURUSD

·       Resistance: 1.0895 / 1.0933

·       Support: 1.0810 / 1.0772

The euro has declined against the US dollar for two consecutive days but has remained within a five-month high range. Market concerns include ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and Trump's tariffs on the EU. The exchange rate must stay above the 10-day moving average to maintain its high range. Attention will focus on Germany's February CPI final figure, which is anticipated to show an annual growth rate of 2.3%.

GBPUSD

·       Resistance: 1.2986 / 1.3057

·       Support: 1.2873 / 1.2817

Yesterday, the sterling saw a slight dip against the US dollar, concluding a three-day ascent. Yet it held at a high level not witnessed in over four months. The current resistance stands at 1.2989, with initial support at 1.2900. Today's announcement of the UK's January GDP could enhance the pound's prospects of approaching the 1.3000 mark if the figures indicate improvement.

USDJPY

·       Resistance: 148.95 / 149.27

·       Support: 147.89 / 147.48

Following a two-day rally, the USD/JPY pair gave up its gains and fell below 148. During the Asian trading session, it attempted to recover, testing the 10-day moving average resistance at 148.36. A breakthrough could confirm a start upward from recent lows.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

·       Resistance: 67.41 / 67.74

·       Support: 66.38 / 65.96

Oil prices fell overnight as the market reacted to macroeconomic concerns and ongoing Russia- Ukraine ceasefire talks. Despite reaching a new high earlier in the week, prices dropped below $67 and may test support levels under $66.

Spot Gold

·       Resistance: 3003 / 3018

·       Support: 2970 / 2956

Spot Silver

·       Resistance: 34.14 / 34.41

·       Support: 33.49 / 33.21

Spot gold hit a record high near $2,990, experiencing its most significant single-day increase since last November due to heightened safe-haven demand amid the global trade war. This uptick may indicate a short-term trend, but approaching $3,000 could prompt profit-taking by traders before the weekend.

Dow Futures

·       Resistance: 41495 / 41863

·       Support: 40277 / 39903

With President Trump's latest tariff threats, market pessimism has risen. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell over 1%, with the Dow experiencing a four-day losing streak for the first time in nearly three months. As the downward channel expands, attention should be paid to whether the 40,000-point mark becomes the target.

NAS100

·       Resistance: 19695 / 19887

·       Support: 18851 / 18655

Major tech stocks dropped amid market pessimism. The Nasdaq briefly reached its lowest level since last September but managed to hold support near this week’s lows. The index may consolidate in the short term, but if not, it could slide toward 19,000, with resistance shifting to the 19,600 area and above.

BTC

·       Resistance: 84668 / 86670

·       Support: 78187 / 76219

Risk sentiment is increasing as Trump’s tariff threats heighten global trade concerns. Weaker U.S. PPI data points to cooling inflation, raising economic outlook worries. Bitcoin briefly spiked to $83,000 amid safe-haven demand but remains fragile due to tariff risks and recession fears.

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