ATFX Market Outlook 15th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 15th April 2025

Gold Prices Dip as Trade Tensions Ease and Risk Appetite Rises

Market HighlightThe New York Fed's March survey indicated rising short-term inflation expectations and low consumer confidence. Federal Reserve Governor Waller mentioned that Trump's tariff policies could force rate cuts to prevent a recession despite high inflation.

On Monday, U.S. stocks rose, with Apple significantly boosting the S&P 500 after the White House exempted new tariffs on smartphones and computers. The Dow grew 0.78%, the S&P 500 gained 0.79%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.64%, though all closed below their intraday highs due to tariff uncertainty.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen amid concerns over Trump's tariff policies, with some indicators showing it is oversold. The euro slipped 0.06% from a three-year high, while USD/JPY fell 0.31% to 143.02, and GBP/USD rose 0.74% to 1.3182.

Gold prices decreased after hitting a historic high, dropping 0.8% to $3,209.28 per ounce, influenced by improved risk sentiment. Oil prices rose slightly due to tariff exemptions and a rebound in China's crude imports, but concerns about the trade war's impact on global growth limited gains.

Key Outlook

Today's focus is on the UK job report, with the ILO unemployment rate for the three months ending in February expected to remain at 4.4%. Labor market uncertainty and rising taxes may hurt consumer confidence, impacting the pound. Additionally, pay attention to the April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone and Germany. Before these data are released, crude investors should consider the IEA's monthly report, which could guide crude output and demand.  In the evening, key U.S. data includes the April New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the March Import/Export Price Index, which could influence market direction alongside comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate FEB ** 

16:00 IEA Monthly Report *** 

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index APR **

20:30 CA Core CPI YoY MAR *** 

Tomorrow

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

10:00 CN China State Council Information Office Press Conference*** 

14:00 GB Core CPI & PPI MAR *** 

17:00 EU Core CPI Final YoY MAR *** 

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM MAR *** 

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:30 BoC Press Conference *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1412 / 1.1442

· Support: 1.1280 / 1.1250

The EUR/USD traded between 1.1400 and 1.1300 on Monday, potentially pausing the Euro’s recovery. Markets expect a quarter-point rate cut from the ECB this week, keeping investor sentiment cautious. The key event is the ECB's rate decision on Thursday.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3208 / 1.3266

· Support: 1.3134 / 1.3076

GBP/USD rose 0.75%, continuing its recovery. The pair is testing multi-month highs near 1.3200, with key UK labor data and CPI inflation due today and Wednesday. Technically, GBP/USD is near resistance at 1.3200, with momentum still bullish but showing signs of being overbought.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.97 / 144.61

· Support: 142.30 / 141.81

The USD/JPY extended its decline yesterday, closing just above 143, marking three consecutive days of losses. The rate remains at its lowest since September, with key support around 142 this week. Attention is also being paid to the downward trendline support from early this month.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 62.58 / 63.88

· Support: 60.52 / 59.48

Oil prices rose slightly, with WTI reaching $61.53, supported by U.S. tariff exemptions and a rebound in China's crude imports. Watch for resistance at $62.58 and support at $60.52. The IEA’s monthly report is due today, but trade war concerns and lower forecasts from analysts and OPEC are limiting gains.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3250 / 3274

· Support: 3193 / 3168

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.61/ 33.29

· Support: 31.92 / 31.23

After last week's gains, gold retreated to $3,200 due to the U.S. exemption of some electronics from tariffs. This boosted market sentiment and stock futures, reducing gold's capital inflow. Key events this week include comments from Federal Reserve officials and Wednesday’s retail sales data, which may indirectly affect the dollar and impact gold. 

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41183 / 41904

· Support: 39717/ 38984

The Dow Futures initially surged but then stalled due to concerns over fluctuating tariffs. Despite a tech rally, uncertainty keeps investors cautious. The Dow remains near 40,000, facing resistance at 41,000.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19314/ 19752

· Support: 18424 / 17980

The US government has suspended taxes on certain technology products, boosting investor sentiment, particularly lifting Apple's stock. The Nasdaq opened higher but later declined, hitting initial resistance at the 20-day moving average near 19,100. If it adjusts, support may be found around 18,440, where the 10-day moving average is located.

BTC

· Resistance: 85846/ 87070

· Support: 83155 / 81972

BTC rose 0.6% to $84,521 on Monday and is now consolidating, facing resistance at $86,100 and support at $83,440. U.S. trade tariff exemptions have improved risk sentiment.  Short-term fluctuations are expected as the market adapts to increased institutional involvement, which could drive long-term adoption and price growth.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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