ATFX Market Outlook 16th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 16th April 2025

Markets Await US Retail Sales and Powell’s Speech

Market HighlightU.S. import prices in March fell unexpectedly due to lower energy costs, signalling easing inflation ahead of Trump's tariff policies. Despite robust bank earnings, U.S. stocks closed slightly lower amid uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with the Dow down 0.38%, the S&P 500 down 0.17%, and the Nasdaq declining.

 The dollar rose against some major currencies, showing a temporary rebound after last week's over 3% drop in the dollar index, although tariffs kept investors cautious. The euro fell 0.62% against the dollar to 1.1281; the dollar rose 0.16% against the yen to 143.25; and the pound rose 0.32% against the dollar to 1.3224.

Gold prices increased due to safe-haven demand, as uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff plans made investors nervous. A weaker dollar provided additional support. Spot gold closed at $3,227.61 per ounce, up 0.6%. Oil prices remained steady as investors digested the latest news on Trump's fluctuating tariff policies and assessed the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on global economic growth and oil demand.

Key Outlook

Today, the UK will release March CPI and PPI data, with a potential year-on-year slowdown in CPI posing a threat to the pound's monetary policy outlook. In the evening, the U.S. will report March retail sales, with hopes for recovery following modest growth last month. Then, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady while maintaining a dovish stance. At midnight, the market shifts focus to Fed Chair Powell’s speech; his remarks could affect the financial market, including U.S. stocks and commodities. 

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB Core CPI & PPI MAR *** 

17:00 EU Core CPI Final YoY MAR *** 

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM MAR *** 

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision *** 

22:30 BoC Press Conference *** 

Tomorrow

01:15 Fed’s Chair Powell Speaks *** 

09:30 AU Unemployment Rate MAR ** 

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY MAR ** 

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:45 ECB Press Conference *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1341 / 1.1408

· Support: 1.1193 / 1.1127

The EUR/USD is currently around 1.1285. Markets are focusing on the Eurozone Core CPI data (forecast: 2.4%), which may be bearish for the euro, and then the US Retail Sales data (forecast: 1.4%) are in focus. These data will guide the interest rate policies of the Fed and ECB, both of which are currently under scrutiny.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3267 / 1.3327

· Support: 1.3208 / 1.3134

The British Pound has reached a six-month high, despite steady UK unemployment remaining 4.4%, thanks to strong wage growth. Today, traders will focus on UK inflation data, US retail sales, and Fed Chair Powell's speech. The UK continues to be exempt from US tariffs, with a potential BoE rate cut in May unless UK inflation growth exceeds market expectations. Technically, GBP/USD has broken and held at 1.3251, which may aim for 1.3300. Conversely, GBPUSD under 1.3251 will target support levels at 1.3200 and 1.3163.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.97 / 144.61

· Support: 142.30 / 141.81

BOJ Governor Ueda mentioned possible actions if US tariffs impact Japan's economy. Currently, the USD/JPY ranges between 144.012 and 142.35. Traders should watch for potential breakouts, possibly triggered by policy shifts or new economic developments。 Today, US Retail Sales data and Powell's speech will guide the dollar and influence the JPY. 

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 62.58 / 63.88

· Support: 59.48 / 58.44

WTI crude fell to $60.80 during early Asian trading, and US oil futures experienced a slight decline. OPEC reduced its demand forecasts owing to Trump's tariffs. US stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, leading to a 14% drop in price from early April. Traders are closely monitoring the situation. Investors should pay attention to U.S. retail sales and Powell's speech, as these factors could impact oil prices amid crude demand. 

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3299 / 3324

· Support: 3250 / 3218

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.61/ 33.29

· Support: 31.92 / 31.23

Gold surged to $3,270 due to US-China tensions and falling Treasury yields, with added volatility from Trump's tariff threats and China's Boeing ban. Focus on Retail Sales data and Powell's speech. Housing data and Initial Jobless Claims are also key. Gold remains bullish, with support at $3,250 and $3218.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41183 / 41904

· Support: 39717/ 38984

Trump announced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and China halted Boeing deliveries, intensifying trade tensions. The Dow futures rose 0.3%, but the gains were capped and then reversed to fall. Retail sales data and Powell's speech will be the focus tonight. Technically, if it dips below 40,000, targets are 39,877; if it rises above 40,500, eyes are on 40,909. Watch Trump’s and Powell's comments for their impact on the stock market.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19314/ 19752

· Support: 18424 / 17980

Overnight, most major U.S. tech stocks declined by over 1%, except Netflix and Tesla, amid market participants awaiting their earnings reports. NASDAQ experienced slight movement, encountering resistance at the 20-day moving average of 19,000. Without positive news, it may look for support below 18,500.

BTC

· Resistance: 84664/ 85846

· Support: 83155 / 81972

Bitcoin whales are returning, with large addresses increasing by 3.5% in just one month, reaching levels not seen since April 2024. This trend suggests a potential price breakout. Bitcoin is trading at $84,084, reflecting a 9.48% increase over the past week. Investors should pay attention to Powell's speech at midnight; his hawkish tone could affect the crypto market and restrict further upward movement.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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