ATFX Market Outlook 18th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 18th August 2025

Markets Brace for Jackson Hole: Fresh Data Reinforces Fed Cut Outlook

Market HighlightU. S. July retail sales showed strong growth, though the chance of a 25 bps September Fed cut slipped from 94% to 89%. Preliminary Michigan data signaled weaker consumer sentiment, while Trump called his first meeting with Putin in six years “productive.” 

While on Friday, U.S. stocks ended mixed. The Dow hit a new intraday record, lifted by UnitedHealth after Berkshire raised its stake, while the S&P 500 fell 0.29% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.4% as mixed data clouded Fed policy outlook.

The U.S. dollar slipped last Friday as data releases kept September Fed rate-cut expectations intact, while traders awaited the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1702, USD/JPY fell 0.4% to 147.23, and GBP/USD gained 0.2% to 1.3552.

Gold held steady but logged a 1.87% weekly loss as hotter inflation tempered Fed cut bets. Focus shifted to the Trump-Putin talks, with spot gold flat at $3,334.98. Oil dipped nearly $1 as traders awaited possible sanctions relief from the U.S.-Russia meeting.

Key Outlook

This week, markets focus on the Fed’s minutes, the Jackson Hole symposium, and CPI data. Monday begins quietly with the Eurozone trade balance and the U.S. NAHB housing index, where investors look for stabilization. 

Key Data and Events Today:

17:00 EU Trade Balance JUN **

22:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index AUG **

Tomorrow:

20:30 US Building Permits JUL ** 

20:30 US Housing Starts MoM JUL ** 

20:30 CA CPI YoY JUL ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1789/1.1835

· Support: 1.1636/1.1589

EUR/USD climbed 0.5% to 1.1702, supported by optimism over a potential Ukraine ceasefire. Markets expect the euro to gain further if negotiations advance. Technically, the pair is holding support near 1.1636 and trending higher along the ascending line, with potential to test 1.1789 if momentum holds.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3590/1.3642

· Support: 1.3471/1.3418

GBP/USD edged up 0.2% to 1.3552, supported by upbeat UK data and a hawkish tone from the BoE. Technically, the pair is holding above 1.3470 support and eyeing a retest of 1.3590 resistance, with market focus still on the Fed’s September policy decision.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.39/148.99

· Support: 146.60/145.85

USD/JPY slipped 0.4% to 147.23 after stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data. Yen strength was also aided by BOJ comments on “lagging” inflation response. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 148.39, and a break below 146.60 could expose 145.85.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 63.31/64.01

· Support: 60.40/59.72

WTI crude fell to $61.78 per barrel, nearing the critical $60 support. Market focus remains on potential ceasefire and sanctions relief following Trump-Putin talks. If negotiations progress, oil may face further downside pressure. Technically, the price was rejected at the $63.31 resistance zone and continues lower, with risks pointing to a test of $60.40 support if recovery fails.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3355/3376

· Support: 3322/3305

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.44/38.73

· Support: 37.47/37.17

Gold steadied around $3333/oz. Stronger-than-expected US PPI has reduced aggressive Fed rate-cut bets, capping upside momentum. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical risks have weakened safe-haven demand. Technically, gold faces resistance near 3355, aligning with the descending trendline. Failure to break higher could see a retest of support at 3322.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45249/45479

· Support: 44658/44480

Last Friday, Dow Futures reached a record intraday high, closing at 44,946 (+0.08%). The main driver was UnitedHealth’s 12% surge, following Berkshire Hathaway’s increased stake in the company. Technically, the index faces resistance near 45,249, but if support at 44,658 holds, further upside toward the 45,479 resistance remains possible.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23938/24041

· Support: 23453/23348

The NAS100 fell 0.4% to 21,623 last Friday, weighed by a weak chip outlook and lower bank shares. Tech sector remains under pressure. Technically, resistance is noted near 23,938, while a failure to break higher could see a retest of 23,453 support.

BTC

· Resistance: 119728/121572

· Support: 115257/ 113792

Bitcoin holds near $117,600, with volatility at 1.02%. Traders await the Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. A dovish tone may support BTC, while hawkish signals could weigh on risk assets. Technically, support lies at $115,257, while stability may allow a retest of $119,728 resistance.

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