ATFX ​Market Outlook 19th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 19th August 2025

Markets on Edge: Dollar, Stocks Flat as Jackson Hole Looms, Gold Steady

Market HighlightU.S. equities ended Monday little changed as investors struggled for direction, awaiting earnings reports from major retailers for further clues on the economic outlook, while also focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole. The Dow Jones slipped 0.08%, the S&P 500 edged down 0.03%, and the Nasdaq inched up 0.01%.

The U.S. dollar strengthened as President Trump hosted talks aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine war, with traders scaling back bets on a September Fed rate cut ahead of Chair Powell’s speech on Friday. EUR/USD fell 0.31% to 1.1661, USD/JPY rose 0.41% to 147.79, and GBP/USD slipped 0.35% to 1.3504.

Gold prices held broadly steady as investors monitored Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian and European leaders, as well as the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference this week. Spot gold eased slightly to $3,330.25 an ounce, having earlier touched its lowest since August 1. Oil prices rose 1% as Trump and Zelenskiy met, following the inconclusive U.S.–Russia summit in Alaska last Friday.

Key Outlook

Today’s focus will be on U.S. housing market data, with July housing starts and building permits expected to show a slowdown. Later in the evening, Canada will release July CPI. Markets expect an annual rate of 1.7% (previous 1.9%), with potential tariff effects posing upside risks. A softer CPI would reinforce the Bank of Canada’s patience in holding rates, though markets still expect rates to fall to 2.25% by year-end.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US Building Permits JUL ** 

20:30 US Housing Starts MoM JUL ** 

20:30 CA CPI YoY JUL **

Tomorrow:

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

09:15 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y **  

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM JUL **  

14:00 GB CPI YoY JUL **  

17:00 EU CPI MoM Final JUL ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1730/1.1789

· Support: 1.1636/1.1589

The euro slipped 0.31% to 1.1661 against the dollar as traders scaled back bets on a September Fed rate cut ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Technically, EUR/USD is trading within an ascending channel, with immediate support near 1.1636. A rebound above this level could push the price toward 1.1730 and higher, while a breakdown below 1.1636 may trigger deeper losses toward 1.1589.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3590/1.3642

· Support: 1.3471/1.3418

The British pound slipped 0.35% to 1.3504, pressured by renewed USD strength and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy stance. Technically, GBP/USD is retesting support at 1.3471 after breaking above the long-term downtrend line. Holding above this zone could fuel a rebound toward 1.3590.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.39/148.99

· Support: 147.19/146.60

The dollar rose 0.41% to 147.79 against the yen, supported by higher U.S. yields and reduced safe-haven demand for the yen. Technically, USD/JPY has broken above a descending trendline and is now consolidating between support at 147.19 and resistance at 148.39. A bounce from support could open the way to retest 148.39, while a break below 147.19 would weaken the bullish outlook.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 63.31/64.01

· Support: 61.10/60.40

Crude oil rose ~1%, with WTI at $63.42 and Brent at $66.60, supported by Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets and hopes of US-Russia-Ukraine talks. Technically, WTI ranges between $61.10 and $63.31; a break higher may target $65.00, while a drop below $61.10 risks $59.50.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3355/3376

· Support: 3322/3305

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.44/38.73

· Support: 37.47/37.17

Gold held nearly $3,333 as markets awaited Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Price is trapped between $3,322 support and $3,355 resistance, with a lower high signaling fading momentum. A break above $3,355 could open $3,376, while a drop below $3,322 risks $3,305.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45064/45248

· Support: 44659/44481

The Dow Futures slipped 0.08% to 44,911.82, consolidating after record highs as investors awaited Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and major retail earnings. Technically, price remains stable around 45,064 resistance, a break below 44,659 could trigger further downside, while holding above may allow another push higher.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23801/23937

· Support: 23587/23453

NAS100 inched up 0.03% to 21,629.77, lifted by tech strength ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Price consolidates in a narrowing range: 23,801 caps upside while 23,587 holds as key demand. A breakout will define the next move.

BTC

· Resistance: 119724/118235

· Support: 113791/ 111923

Bitcoin declined below $116,000 to around $115,160, retreating from last week’s $124,000 peak as Fed cut expectations diminished and geopolitical risks increased. Technically, the price has broken below the uptrend line, with resistance at $119,724–$118,235 likely to limit gains. A move towards $113,791 support remains possible.

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