ATFX Market Outlook 23rd January 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 23rd January 2025

Market Momentum: U.S. Stock Keeps Rally While Gold Shines at Three-Month Peak

Opinion Today:

U.S. stock indexes rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 reaching an intraday record high. This was driven by excitement over Netflix's quarterly report and President Trump's AI infrastructure investment plan, "Stargate." The Dow futures gained by 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.61%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.28%.

After hitting a two-week low, the dollar hovered around 108 as investors awaited more details on Trump's tariff plan. The dollar index edged up 0.01% to 108.14, while the euro fell 0.08% to 1.0421 and the pound dropped 0.22% to 1.2327.

Gold prices soared to a nearly three-month high and gained 0.44% to $2,756.37 an ounce, nearing their all-time high. Meanwhile, oil prices fell to a one-week low amid concerns over the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on global economic growth and energy demand.

On Thursday, investors will assess whether the US initial jobless claims still indicate a strong job market. Recent data suggests the labor market remains solid this year. Meanwhile, the eurozone will release the January consumer confidence index, which is expected to show ongoing negative growth in a weak economic environment. Whether the data is slow or not, increase the ECB rate cut expectations.

Key Data:

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

21:30 CA Retail Sales NOV ** 

23:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash JAN ** 

Tomorrow

00:00 US President Trump Speaks *** 

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision *** 

14:30 BoJ Press Conference *** 

22:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JAN ***

23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JAN *** 

EUR/USD

1.0466/1.0497 Resistance

1.0366/1.0336 Support 

ECB policymakers support continued easing policy, with a rate cut likely next week. The euro soared to 1.0457 against the U.S. dollar but faced resistance; a rebound is possible if it holds above 1.0400; otherwise, it may drop below 1.0366/1.0336 support.

GBP/USD

1.2393/1.2450 Resistance 

1.2211/1.2153 Support 

GBP/USD volatility decreased significantly yesterday. It reached a two-week high but closed lower due to a rebound in the US dollar and resistance from the 20-day moving average. On the technical side, trading within the 1.2350 to 1.2250 range is potentially possible.

USD/JPY

156.90/157.30 Resistance

155.59/155.18 Support 

The USD/JPY currency pair recorded its first higher close this week yesterday, reaching a one-week high during the session. However, it encountered resistance at the 10-day moving average. This morning, it tested this level again but failed to break through. As a result, there is a possibility of a pullback below 156. On the other hand, if it successfully breaks above the recent weekly high, it will likely target the resistance at the 20-day moving average, which is near 157.10.

USD/CAD

1.4456/1.4487 Resistance

1.4297/1.4259 Support

The USD/CAD pair maintained its upward trend, supported near 1.4300, and tested the key resistance above 1.4370. A break at this level would signal a potential rebound and aim for the 1.4400 mark.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Mar)

75.85/76.79 Resistance 

74.00/72.82 Support

Oil prices dropped to a two-week low of around $75 due to uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and energy policies. The 20-day moving average at $74.84 may act as support, and if prices remain above it, a rebound above $76 is possible.

Spot Gold

2763/2767 Resistance

2746/2742 Support

Spot Silver

30.97/31.09 Resistance

30.58/30.47 Support 

Spot gold surged, reaching a three-month high above $2,760. In contrast, spot silver closed lower after giving up its gains. Gold's bullish momentum may continue, targeting the historical high of $2,790 from last October, with current resistance at $2,763/2,767.

US30

44601/45078 Resistance 

43847/43467 Support 

On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market closed higher. The Dow futures showed milder gains than technology stocks, fluctuating less than 200 points. It reached a five-week high but needs news to break through the 44,500 mark.

NAS100

22127/22312 Resistance

21708/21520 Support 

Trump announced that OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are launching a "Stargate" project with a joint investment of $500 billion for AI infrastructure in the U.S. The Nasdaq opened sharply higher, and bulls may aim to surpass 22,000, targeting above 22,100, the mid-December high.

BTC (Bitcoin)

107062/108247 Resistance

100980/99518 Support

On Wednesday, Bitcoin stabilized at $104,020.0, down 0.5%. Meanwhile, Ether dropped 0.6% to $3,282.44, while XRP gained 1.3%. Solana surged over 7%, but Cardano and Polygon fell between 0.2% and 2%, with Dogecoin down 2.1%. This followed a rally fueled by the SEC's announcement of a new regulatory framework for crypto under President Trump. The bull momentum may continue if the BTC secures at $100K. 

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