ATFX Market Outlook 23rd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 23rd July 2025

Wall Street Wavers on Trade Fears, Gold Finds Strength in Uncertainty

Market HighlightThe S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, despite a sharp drop in General Motors and gains in Tesla, as investors focused on recent and upcoming corporate earnings and signs of progress in U.S. trade negotiations. U.S. equity indices were mixed: the Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 edged higher, and the Nasdaq fell 0.39%.

U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continued to decline as President Trump stepped up criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Investors remain focused on the August 1 deadline for trade negotiations; if no deals are reached, the U.S. may impose high tariffs on its trading partners. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% to 97.545, while the euro rose 0.2% to 1.1725.

Gold prices climbed to a five-week high, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty and falling U.S. bond yields. Investors are closely watching the August 1 trade deadline set by President Trump. Spot gold rose around 1% to $3,431.12 per ounce. Oil prices fell for a third consecutive session as fading hopes for a U.S.-EU trade deal raised concerns about slowing demand in the world’s largest oil market.

Key Outlook

The Eurozone releases its preliminary July Consumer Confidence Index today, which is expected to remain in negative territory. Markets will watch to see if sentiment holds steady near -15 for a third month or deteriorates further under pressure from U.S. tariff threats. Attention also turns to the European Central Bank’s rate decision due tomorrow.

Key Data and Events Today: 

09:30 BoJ Vice President Speaks ***

13:00 BoJ Core CPI YoY **

22:00 EU Consumer Confidence PREL JUL **

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Tomorrow: 

07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL ** 

08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

11:05 RBA Governor Speech ***

14:00 EU Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG **

15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:45 ECB Press Conference ***

21:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL JUL ***

22:00 US New Home Sales JUN **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1789/1.1830

· Support: 1.1693/1.1660

The EUR/USD climbed to 1.1725 as dollar weakness deepened amid fading hopes for a US-EU trade deal—markets are eyeing this week’s ECB meeting, where no rate changes are expected. The pair held above 1.1693, suggesting bullish momentum may target 1.1789.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3575/1.3626

· Support: 1.3462/1.3411

GBP/USD extended gains to 1.3519 as broad dollar weakness and stable UK employment figures supported the pair. Market focus turns to BoE Governor Bailey's comments for monetary policy cues. The price remains above the uptrend line, eyeing 1.3575 as the next level of resistance.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.47/147.88

· Support: 145.75/145.36

The USD/JPY fell to 146.54 as political calm in Japan following the election supported yen demand for a second consecutive session. Uncertainty surrounding US-Japan trade talks ahead of the August 1 deadline added downside pressure. The price remains below the 147.47 resistance level, with the potential to test the 145.75–145.36 support zone.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.12/66.79

· Support 64.80/63.97

WTI crude fell for a third consecutive session to $64.80, pressured by dimming prospects of a US-EU trade agreement and rising concerns over global demand. Technically, the price remains capped below the descending trendline and the $66.12 resistance but still holds above key support near $64.80.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3445/3453

· Support: 3411/3404

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 39.51/39.75

· Support 38.88/38.50

Gold surged to $3,432, reaching a five-week high as lower U.S. Treasury yields and escalating trade tensions fueled demand for safe havens. Technically, gold is consolidating above the $3,411 support zone with potential to test the $3,445 resistance. Markets remain on edge over Trump’s push to remove Powell, stoking concerns about Fed independence.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44721/44886

· Support: 44328/44196

The Dow Futures rose 0.40% to 44,502, led by healthcare and real estate, despite GM plunging 8.1% on tariff costs. The price nears a key trendline junction; a break above 44,723 may extend gains, while a rejection risks a drop to 44,328.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 23050/22608

The NAS100 dropped to 23,038 points (a 0.39% decline) amid mixed tech performance, as investors proceed with caution ahead of earnings and Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. Technically, the price remains above trendline support near 23,050; a sustained base could open the way towards 23,485 highs.

BTC

· Resistance: 121140/123240

· Support: 118966/116322

Bitcoin holds above $119K after breaking trendline resistance, eyeing $121,140. Square's rollout of BTC payments via the Lightning Network boosts real-world adoption. Backed by ETFs and institutional demand, the bullish cycle remains intact.

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