ATFX Market Outlook 24th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 24th September 2025

Powell’s Balancing Act Sends Wall Street Lower as Gold Hits New Highs

Market HighlightFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to balance elevated inflation risks against a weakening labor market in upcoming policy decisions. U.S. equities slipped on Tuesday after three straight record closes, with the Dow down 0.19%, the S&P 500 falling 0.55%, and the Nasdaq retreating 0.95%. The U.S. Dollar Index held steady at 97.25 as investors digested comments from Powell and other Fed officials.

Gold prices surged to fresh record highs amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Spot gold gained 0.47% to $3,763.82/oz, briefly touching an all-time high of $3,790.82/oz earlier in the session. Oil prices snapped a four-day losing streak, climbing over $1 per barrel after talks to resume Kurdish crude exports stalled, easing concerns about oversupply.

Key Outlook

In Europe, Germany is expected to release its September IFO Business Climate Index, which is expected to rise for a seventh consecutive month to 89.3, signaling steady recovery momentum. Later in the U.S. session, US August New Home Sales are due, with forecasts pointing to a stable figure around 650,000 units.

Key Data and Events Today:

16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate SEP ** 

22:00 US New Home Sales AUG ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

Tomorrow: 

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes *** 

14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence OCT ** 

15:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:30 US GDP QoQ Final Q2 *** 

20:30 US Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q2 ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders AUG ** 

22:00 US Existing Home Sales AUG **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1857/1.1888

· Support: 1.1758/1.1728

EUR/USD held steady above 1.1800, gaining 0.09%, supported by Fed–ECB policy divergence. While the Fed is widely expected to deliver another rate cut in October, the ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged, which underpins the euro’s relative strength. Technically, the pair remains in an ascending channel, with support near 1.1758 and upside potential toward 1.1857 if the channel structure holds.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3581/1.3608

· Support: 1.3464/1.3436

GBP/USD rebounded near 1.3500, supported by broad Dollar weakness despite disappointing UK PMI data. The pair is trading within an ascending channel, with immediate support at 1.3464 and resistance at 1.3581. As long as price holds above 1.3460, the bias remains upward, with potential to retest the 1.3581 resistance level.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.17/148.60

· Support: 147.31/146.88

USD/JPY softened to around 147.60 after Fed Chair Powell highlighted labor market weakness as the reason behind the recent rate cut. Despite Dollar softness, Yen strength may be capped by domestic political uncertainty following PM Ishiba’s resignation. Technically, key support lies near 147.31; holding above this zone could lead to a rebound toward 148.17, while a break below risks a deeper downside toward 146.88.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 64.30/64.76

· Support: 63.19/62.82

WTI crude gained over 2%, settling at $63.77/bbl, as stalled negotiations on resuming Iraqi Kurdish oil exports eased market fears of oversupply. The rebound signals strong short-term support near $63.19 with technical resistance at $64.30 and a descending trendline limiting upside momentum. A clear break above $64.30 could open the way toward $65.00, while failure to hold $63.19 risks renewed downside pressure.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3787/3797

· Support: 3747/3739

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 44.53/44.81

· Support: 43.40/43.18

Spot gold reached a fresh record high of $3,790.97/oz before easing to around $3,767/oz, supported by geopolitical risks and bets on a Fed rate cut. Key support lies at $3,747, while a break above $3,787 could open the door toward $3,787–3,797.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46444/46562

· Support: 46160/46069

The Dow Futures slipped 0.19% to 46,292.78, weighed down by Fed Chair Powell’s balanced remarks between inflation and labor market risks, as well as ongoing valuation concerns. Technically, support lies near 46,160, while a recovery above 46,444 could pave the way for a move toward 46,700–46,900.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24831/24980

· Support: 24360/24208

NAS100 fell 0.95%, dragged lower by a 2.8% drop in Nvidia, while Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon also retreated. Market sentiment turned cautious after Powell’s balanced remarks on inflation and labor risks. Technically, support lies near 24,360, while recovery momentum could extend gains toward 24,831 if buyers step back in.

BTC

· Resistance: 113885/115448

· Support: 111359/110096

Bitcoin stabilised near $112,500 after a $1.5 billion crypto liquidation, holding the key $111,359–$110,096 support zone along the ascending trendline. A rebound toward the $113,885 resistance is likely if support holds, but a break lower could trigger a deeper downside.

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