ATFX Market Outlook 25th February 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 25th February 2025 

Euro digest German election results, Gold Hits 11th Dollar Record of 2025

[Markets highlight]

The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 1% on Monday, with big technology stocks creating the biggest drag as investors worried about demand for technology supporting artificial intelligence while they waited for results from market heavyweight Nvidia.

On Monday, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped 0.07% to 106.57, after dipping to 106.12, its lowest since December 10. The euro eased off highs from a brief rally on Monday as the focus shifted from the election victory of Germany's conservatives to how quickly a coalition government can be formed.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

15:00 EU GERMANY GDP Final Q4 ***

23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index FEB  **

Tomorrow

API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

AU CPI  JAN **

EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence MAR **

US New Home Sales JAN **

EURUSD

1.0484/1.0497 Resistance

1.0443/1.0426 Support

Investors on Monday initially welcomed Germany's election result and gave a thumbs up to the new government's 'pro-growth' policies, but the early bounce in EURUSD faded. EUR/USD remains hunkered below 1.0500 as bulls run out of steam, eyeing on the support from the 10-day moving average.

GBPUSD

1.2667/1.2692 Resistance

1.2583/1.2558 Support

GBP/USD rose early on Monday, achieving a new high since December 19 last year. But failed to recapture the 1.2700 threshold, may fall back to the 10-day moving average, with support around 1.2594.

USDJPY

150.95/151.52 Resistance

149.03/148.57 Support

USDJPY reversed from the support area on Monday, halts three-day selloff. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY may defend the December low to confirm a double bottom and stage a rebound back to the 150 threshold.

US crude oil futures (APR)

71.37/71.81 Resistance

69.98/69.55 Support

Oil prices settled higher on Monday as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and a commitment to compensate for overproduction by Iraq added to concerns of near-term supply tightness, helping the market recover some of Friday's steep losses. As WTI recovers above $70, facing resistance from the 10-day moving average.

Spot Gold

2967/2979 Resistance

2935/2921 Support

Spot Silver

32.89/33.15 Resistance

31.81/31.55 Support

On Monday, supported by the sluggish dollar, gold prices hit a new record high above $2950/ounce, refreshing the record high to $2956. Gold-backed ETFs see biggest net inflows since 2022, supporting prices. The primary moving average on the daily chart provided a foundation of support, the next resistance would be at $2980.

Dow Futures

43800/44043 Resistance

43047/42816 Support

The U.S. stock market kicked off the week with major indexes mostly down as Big Tech stumbled and renewed tariff worries emerged. Dow marked a three-day decline, may hover in the lower range and look for the support around 43000.

NAS100

21595/21741 Resistance

21157/20973 Support

Nasdaq100 (NQ) slid more than 1% on Monday. Investors were concerned about future demand for Nvidia's pricey AI chips as they awaited its quarterly results on Wednesday. The trend line from January has become a resistance level, indicating potential declines below 21200.

BTC

93651/94591 Resistance

89671/88476 Support

Bitcoin price was down 3.9% to three-week low due to new tariffs from President Trump, deepening a broader crypto market selloff that erased more than $110 billion in value. The short-term trend is downward, focusing on whether prices might reach the January low near $89200.

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