ATFX Market Outlook 25th March 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th March 2025

Trump’s Tariff Flexibility Sparks a Wall Street Comeback – Stocks Soar!

Market HighlightU.S. stocks surged on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in over two weeks, driven by gains in Nvidia and Tesla. The rally was fueled by signs that the Trump administration may take a more moderate stance on tariffs against U.S. trade partners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%, the S&P 500 gained 1.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.27%.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. March business activity data and reports of Trump's flexibility on upcoming tariffs boosted the U.S. dollar index back above the 104 mark. USD/JPY climbed 0.82% to 150.54, while EUR/USD slipped 0.09% to 1.0804. GBP/USD edged up 0.05% to 1.2920 by the New York close.

Gold prices declined as the U.S. dollar strengthened to a more than two-week high. Investors reassessed Trump’s cautious stance on trade tariffs, pushing spot gold down 0.4% to $3,012.27 per ounce. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed 1% after Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on countries purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela.

Key OutlookToday’s key data releases focus on the U.S. economy. The March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index remains in the spotlight—any reading below 100 would signal weakening sentiment. Additionally, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index finally ended a prolonged losing streak last month. If it can sustain growth, it may help ease concerns over deteriorating economic confidence.

Key Data and Events Today:

17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate MAR ** 

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence MAR ** 

22:00 US New Home Sales FEB ** 

Tomorrow

04:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

08:30 AU CPI FEB *** 

15:00 GB CPI & PPI FEB *** 

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders FEB ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.0837 / 1.0859

· Support: 1.0763 / 1.0741

EUR/USD dipped below 1.0800 as weak Eurozone PMIs, and a U.S. manufacturing slowdown fueled economic concerns. Trump’s tariff flexibility provided relief, while a strong U.S. Services PMI showed firms passing costs to consumers. Traders await U.S. PCE inflation data later this week for further cues.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.2937 / 1.2955

· Support: 1.2881 / 1.2858

UK and US PMI data showed mixed results. UK manufacturing weakened, while services improved, showing firms can pass costs to consumers. Trump's flexible tariff stance supported market sentiment. Traders await UK CPI data.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 151.32 / 151.55

· Support: 150.58 / 150.35

The BoJ's January minutes signaled a cautious stance on tightening, keeping the yen weak. While some members saw a need for gradual rate hikes, real interest rates are expected to stay negative. Concerns over yen depreciation were noted, but no immediate policy changes were suggested, leaving USD/JPY slightly higher at 150.74.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 69.64 / 69.93

· Support: 68.73 / 68.45

Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil buyers while extending Chevron’s exit to May 27. This pressures Venezuela’s economy, may push China and India toward Russian oil, and balances Trump’s policy goals. Venezuela condemned the move as aggression.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3027 / 3039

· Support: 2999 / 2990

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.30 / 33.65

· Support: 32.73 / 32.43

Gold fell for the third day to $3,002 (-0.67%) amid easing tariff concerns, rising U.S. yields, and a stronger dollar. U.S. PMI data was mixed, and Fed’s Bostic signaled only one rate cut in 2025. Gold’s uptrend remains intact, but a break below $3,000 could test $2,990, while resistance lies at $3,027 and $3,039.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43152 / 43543

· Support: 42357 / 41960

Trump’s market-friendly tariff remarks boosted U.S. stocks, with the Dow surging over 1% to a new high since March 7. Reclaiming the 20-day moving average may attract short-term buying, targeting 43,000.

NAS100

· Resistance: 20684 / 21046

· Support: 19873 / 19504

As investors snapped up beaten-down tech stocks, Nvidia rose over 3% on Monday, while Tesla surged nearly 12%, its biggest gain since early November. The Nasdaq gapped up to its highest level since March 7. After reclaiming 20,000, further gains may target the 20,600 resistance.

BTC

· Resistance: 88512 / 90392

· Support: 84689 / 82777

Bitcoin rose 3%. Gains are driven by Strategy’s BTC purchases and easing macro concerns, including lower inflation expectations and Trump’s softer tariff stance. However, recession fears and market risks may limit the upside. Bitcoin’s price remains tied to macroeconomic conditions and stock trends.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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