ATFX Market Outlook 29th May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 29th May 2025

Federal Court Halts Trump Tariffs – Dollar Soars, Gold Slips

Market HighlightThe Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes highlighted concerns over persistent inflation and slowing job growth, reinforcing its cautious stance on interest rates. U.S. equity indices closed lower on Wednesday as investors digested the Fed’s minutes, and semiconductor stocks slumped late in the session. The Dow Jones fell 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 0.56%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.51%.

After a three-day decline, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the U.S. dollar rose for the second straight day, as optimism around trade deals boosted confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. The Japanese yen weakened following weak demand for a 40-year Japanese government bond auction.

The latest headline that the U.S. Federal Court blocked President Trump’s April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority, sent the dollar sharply higher at the Asia open this morning.

Amid the Fed’s cautious monetary policy outlook, gold prices edged lower overnight, with spot gold falling 0.31% to $3,289.31/oz. However, following the court’s decision on Trump’s tariffs, gold dropped over 1% during early Asian trading. Meanwhile, crude oil rose by over 1% overnight due to concerns about supply, as OPEC+ agreed to maintain current production levels and the U.S. banned Chevron from exporting Venezuelan crude.

Key Outlook

Markets will continue to digest the implications of the U.S. Federal Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariff policy, which was announced on April 2. Tonight, revised U.S. Q1 GDP data will be in focus. The preliminary reading showed an unexpected 0.3% contraction, the first economic shrinkage in three years. That initial report had weighed on risk sentiment, but concerns have eased slightly after the U.S. and China reached a temporary trade agreement. The revised GDP release will test whether that initial weakness is confirmed or revised.

Key Data and Events Today:

Switzerland, Germany and Italy Holiday

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:30 US Core PCE Prices Q1 ***

22:00 US Pending Home Sales APR ** 

Tomorrow

07:50 JP Retail Sales and Industrial Output APR ** 

09:30 AU Retail Sales APR ** 

14:00 EU German Retail Sales APR ** 

20:00 EU German CPI MAY ** 

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index APR *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final MAY *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1307 / 1.1349

· Support: 1.1171 / 1.1129

EUR/USD fell below 1.1300 after Fed minutes highlighted inflation and stagflation risks. Strong U.S. data lifted the dollar. The pair retested the broken channel’s lower edge and failed to reclaim 1.1307, suggesting a downside toward 1.1170. Focus shifts to U.S. GDP and PCE data.

 GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3461 / 1.3512

· Support: 1.3338 / 1.3298

GBP/USD extended its pullback below 1.3500 as traders took profit near multi-year highs. The pair broke its ascending trendline and may test support near 1.3338. Despite this, it remains above the 50-day EMA, thereby maintaining the broader uptrend's validity. Focus shifts to U.S. GDP and PCE data after Fed minutes raised concerns over persistent inflation and dollar stability.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 146.92 / 147.67

· Support: 145.38/144.61

USD/JPY climbed to 144.80, breaking above prior resistance as weak demand for Japan’s 40-year bond auction raised expectations of reduced long-term issuance. This weighed on the yen and supported the dollar. Price action broke the descending trendline and may retest the 144.61 level as new support, with room to target 146.92 if momentum continues.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 63.53/ 64.14

· Support: 62.08/ 61.59

WTI crude rose by over 1% to $61.93 as OPEC+ maintained its output levels, and a U.S. ban on Chevron’s Venezuelan exports fueled supply concerns. Technically, WTI broke above descending resistance and completed a double bottom pattern. As long as prices stay above $61.59, momentum may target the $63.53 level.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3308/3337

· Support: 3214/3185

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.23/33.42

· Support: 32.44/32.25

Gold steadied around $3,285 as Fed Minutes flagged heightened inflation and recession risks, keeping safe-haven demand intact. Goldman Sachs advised increasing long-term gold allocation. Technically, the price may retrace to the $3,214 support level and form a reversal base if it holds, with a potential recovery target at $3,308.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42625/42843

· Support: 41932/41716

Dow Futures recovered above 42,600 after a 0.58% drop to 42,098 as traders absorbed Fed Minutes highlighting recession risks. Trump's tariff delay on EU imports slightly eased market tension. Technically, the price bounced sharply off the 41,932 support zone, with upside potential toward 42,843 if momentum remains strong.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21743/22171

· Support: 21180/20729

The NAS100 slipped 0.51% as tech stocks faced pressure ahead of Nvidia's earnings. Despite cautious guidance, Nvidia jumped 3% in after-hours trading, helping stabilize sentiment. Technically, the index remains within a rising channel, with 21,180 as key support and a potential push toward 22,171 on sustained upside momentum.

 BTC

· Resistance: 109344/110692

· Support: 106377/105052

Bitcoin consolidates near $108,000, holding within an ascending channel and above key support at $106,377. Despite miners selling, long-term holders are absorbing supply, with minimal LTH spending suggesting firm conviction. A rebound above $110,692 could trigger a fresh rally toward new highs, with on-chain accumulation supporting bullish momentum.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About ATFX 

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 23 locations and licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Cypriot CySEC, UAE's SCA, Australian ASIC, South African FSCA, and Hong Kong SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX provides exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.