ATFX Market Outlook 2nd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 2nd July 2025

Rising Fed Rate Cut Bets Amid Anticipation of Key US Payroll DataMarket HighlightUS JOLTS job vacancies reached a seven-month high, while ISM manufacturing showed slight improvement but remained in contraction. Fed Chairman Powell emphasised the need for more data before considering interest rate cuts, with a July cut still a possibility. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed lower due to weakness in large tech stocks, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the S&P 500 down 0.11%. In contrast, the Dow rose by 0.91% amid volatile trading and low liquidity.

U.S. Treasury yields rose as the labour market demonstrated resilience, bolstering the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts. The dollar weakened against major currencies but recovered slightly after the release of strong labour demand data. Gold prices climbed over 1% as investors sought safe havens amid concerns about trade tariffs, closing at $3,338 per ounce. Oil prices also rose on positive demand indicators, though market caution persisted before the OPEC+ meeting regarding the August production policy.

Key Outlook

The Eurozone will announce its unemployment rate for June. If it stays at 6.2%, it could indicate economic weakness, supporting expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank. In the U.S., the ADP will release its June payroll data, expected to show 95,000 new jobs created, up from 37,000 in May. Improved numbers may alleviate concerns about the U.S. labour market and economic outlook.

Key Data and Events Today: 

17:00 EU Unemployment Rate MAY  ** 

20:15 US ADP Employment Change JUN  *** 

22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change  ** 

Tomorrow

15:55 EU GERMANY  Services & Composite PMI Final JUN ** 

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **  

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **  

20:30 US Non Farm Payrolls JUN *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims  ***  

22:00 US ISM Services PMI JUN **  

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1830/1.1891

· Support: 1.1772 / 1.1695

The EUR/USD is currently around 1.18, having peaked at 1.1830. Investors are focused on the ECB Forum in Sintra, where Powell highlighted the strength of the US economy and Lagarde mentioned achieving the ECB's inflation target. Market attention is on upcoming US jobs data, including the ADP employment change and Non-Farm Payrolls. Key support is at 1.1772 and resistance is at 1.1830; a rise above 1.1830 could increase gains, while a drop below 1.1772 might lead to 1.1695.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3795 / 1.3826

· Support: 1.3694 / 1.3663

GBP/USD hit 45-month highs above 1.3780 amid ongoing weakness in the US dollar and rising trade tensions. Markets are concentrating on US debt, tariffs, and upcoming payroll data. Technical indicators suggest a potential pullback as the price surpasses key trendlines and overbought signals. Ahead of the forthcoming payroll data, the expectation of weak US figures is likely to keep GBPUSD above 1.3663. 

USDJPY

  Resistance: 144.18 / 144.80

· Support: 142.79/142.18

USD/JPY fell 0.17% to 142.68 after reaching a four-week low but recovered on strong US data yesterday. It trades at 143.6, with resistance around 144.25-50. A break above 144.50 could aim for 145.07-35, then 146.32. Below 143.00, the pair might decline towards 142.00. Likely, consolidation will follow. After the US payrolls data, market participants will shift focus to the US-Japan tariff talks. 

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 66.75/67.83

· Support: 64.24/63.18

US crude oil trades around $64.85 amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting. Recent US inventory data showed an unexpected build, weighing on prices. Traders await the US jobs data and EIA inventory reports for further cues.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3359/3376

· Support: 3305/3282

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.47/36.65

· Support: 35.68/35.50

Gold rises over 1% to around $3,340 as the US Dollar weakens. The US Senate passed a $4.5T tax bill, but traders remain focused on US economic data and upcoming jobs reports. Technically, the key resistance is $3,350; a break above could target $3,400 and beyond. Support is at $3,300, with a break below risking a move to $3,246. The bullish trend remains intact, despite the mixed US jobs data. 

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44686/44903

· Support: 44114/43941

US stock futures closed mixed. The Dow rose 0.9%, while the Nasdaq and S&P fell. The Senate narrowly approved Trump’s tax bill, but markets remain cautious ahead of tariffs set to take effect on July 9. Fed Chair Powell indicates patience on rate cuts amid hopes for US-China trade progress and tensions with Japan. Investors await Thursday’s jobs report to gauge rate cut prospects.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22677/22826

· Support: 22342/22191

Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, with Tesla down 5.3% after Trump criticised Musk over government subsidies. The Senate has passed a $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill, which is now heading to the House. Trump aims to sign it into law by 4 July. Uncertainty surrounds the US payroll data; market participants will await the result and then take action. 

BTC

· Resistance: 107615/108843

· Support: 103549/102300

Bitcoin fell below $107,000 for a second consecutive day amid concerns over US tax laws and declining retail interest. Despite short-term resistance at $108,800, strong institutional demand and seasonal advantages suggest a possible rally towards $110,000  or higher. Critical levels to watch are $108,800 (resistance) and $106,000 (support). A move above $110,000 might target $120,000; dropping below $106,000 risks a more significant decline.

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