ATFX Market Outlook 31st July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 31st July 2025

Fed Dials Down Rate-Cut Hopes – All Eyes on U.S. PCE Inflation Tonight

Market HighlightThe Federal Reserve held rates steady, with Chair Powell’s cautious tone pushing September rate cut odds below 50%. U.S. Q2 GDP beat expectations, but details indicated slowing momentum. July ADP jobs increased by 104,000, surpassing forecasts.

U.S. equities ended mixed on Wednesday. The S&P 500 recovered from intraday highs, pressured by Powell's remarks. The Dow Jones fell 0.36%, the S&P 500 declined 0.12%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.15%. The dollar strengthened, with EUR/USD down 1.23% to 1.1404, and the Dollar Index rose 0.96% to 99.82, its highest since May 29. 

Gold prices declined over 1% as the Fed's stance and strong U.S. economic data undermined its appeal. Spot gold dropped 1.6% to $3274.75/oz. Oil prices closed over 1% higher, supported by geopolitical tensions as President Trump pushed for an end to the war in Ukraine and threatened tariff measures on nations buying Russian oil.

Key Outlook

In Asia, focus remains on the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, with expectations of a hawkish shift as bond volatility eases and trade talks conclude — potentially supporting the yen. In Europe, markets monitor the Eurozone’s June unemployment rate (anticipated to remain above 6%) and Germany’s July CPI, expected to show flat growth. Tonight, the U.S. will release June Core PCE data. A slight acceleration could reflect tariff effects and influence September rate cut expectations.

Key Data and Events Today: 

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Press Conference ***

15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate JUL **

17:00 EU Unemployment Rate JUN **

20:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY JUL **

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM JUN ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

Tomorrow: 

07:30 JP Unemployment Rate JUN **  

09:30 AU PPI QoQ Q2 **  

09:45 CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUL **  

15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **

16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final JUL ** 

16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final JUL **

17:00 EU CPI YoY Flash JUL ** 

20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls JUL ***  

21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final JUL ** 

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI JUL ***  

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final JUL ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1499/1.1527

· Support: 1.1354/1.1319

EUR/USD extended its slide for a fifth day, touching the lowest level since mid-June as upbeat U.S. GDP and jobs data, alongside Powell’s cautious stance, boosted the dollar. Technically, 1.1499 caps the upside; weak German CPI or Eurozone job data could drive the pair toward 1.1354 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3309/1.3336

· Support: 1.3195/1.3169

GBP/USD dipped as broad USD strength and weaker risk sentiment pressured the pair, despite a light UK data calendar. The 1.3309 level caps upside recovery, while 1.3195 serves as key support if tonight’s U.S. PCE data reinforces dollar strength.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 149.97/150.46

· Support: 148.70/148.31

USD/JPY broke above 149, its highest level since April, supported by rising U.S. yields and a dovish BOJ stance. If tonight’s PCE inflation print reinforces Fed hawkishness, the pair may test resistance near 149.97.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 71.51/72.06

· Support: 69.61/68.88

WTI crude climbed over 1% to $70.27/bbl, shrugging off bearish U.S. inventory data. Markets remain focused on Trump’s tariff threats and geopolitical risks, keeping bullish momentum toward the $71.51 resistance zone.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3309/3328

· Support: 3245/3230

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.48/37.78

· Support: 36.69/36.46

Gold (XAU/USD) slid over 1% to $3,275/oz after the Fed held rates steady with a hawkish tone, while stronger-than-expected ADP jobs data lifted the dollar. Price action remains capped by the descending trendline, and failure to reclaim $3,309 may trigger a retest of the $3,245 support zone.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44719/44886

· Support: 44191/44027

The Dow Futures slipped 0.38% as copper tariff concerns hit the materials sector. While upbeat U.S. GDP data provided support, overall risk aversion weighed. Technically, price remains in a downward channel, with 44,719 acting as resistance and 44,191 as key support below.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23484/24038

· Support: 23049/22607

NAS100 rose 0.15%, boosted by strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta. However, Powell’s hawkish tone tempered rate-cut bets. Price is holding the top of the ascending channel, with 23,484 as near-term support and 24,038 as the next upside target.

BTC

· Resistance: 119442/120297

· Support: 116728/115885

Bitcoin trades sideways near $117,700. Despite persistent selling in Binance futures and a sub-1.0 taker buy/sell ratio, price stability indicates passive accumulation. A break below $116,728 in Bitcoin risks a shakeout, while a move above $119,442 could signal bullish continuation.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's SCA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.