ATFX ​Market Outlook 31st October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 31st October 2025

Tech Giants’ Soaring AI Spending Sparks Concerns, U.S. Stocks Retreat While Gold Stabilizes

Market Highlight

U.S. equities fell on Thursday, with the three major indexes closing lower as Meta and Microsoft shares plunged amid market concerns over their substantial expenditures on artificial intelligence. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 led the decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.23%, the S&P 500 slid 0.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.38% to 99.51, marking its highest level since August 1.

Gold halted its losing streak, jumping over 2% overnight as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and lingering uncertainty surrounding the U.S.–China trade deal boosted demand. Spot gold rose 2.4% to settle at $4,023.22 per ounce. Oil prices remained relatively steady as investors assessed the easing of trade tensions.

Key Outlook

The Eurozone will release its October CPI data, expected at 2.1% (previous: 2.2%), slightly above the ECB’s target. While the figure is unlikely to alter the view that the central bank has ended its rate-cut cycle, any surprise could trigger volatility in the Euro and European equity markets.

Key Data and Events Today

15:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM SEP **

18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash OCT **

20:30 CA GDP MoM AUG **  

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Monday: EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: BoC Macklem Speech, JP Manufacturing PMI Final, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US Balance of Trade &

Factory Orders

Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, EU/GB/US Services & Composite

PMI Final OCT, EU PPI, US ADP Employment Change, US ISM Services PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Thursday: GERMANY Industrial Production, EU Retail Sales, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: GERMANY Balance of Trade, US Non-Farm Payrolls, CA Unemployment Rate, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1600/1.1611

· Support: 1.1538/1.1527

EUR/USD extended its slide to 1.1568, marking a fresh multi-month low as the dollar strengthened following Powell’s hawkish tone. The pair remains capped below the descending trendline near 1.1600, with bears eyeing a potential retest of the 1.1538–1.1527 zone. A sustained break beneath this area could open the way toward 1.1450, unless the Eurozone CPI surprises to the upside later today.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3222/1.3248

· Support: 1.3084/1.3058

GBP/USD slid to 1.3152, down 0.31%, as markets priced in a cautious Bank of England ahead of next week’s policy statement. The pair stays below a persistent downtrend line, with 1.3222 acting as immediate resistance. Strong support is seen around 1.3084–1.3058, where a break could accelerate losses toward 1.3000. Short-term rebounds may face selling pressure near the 1.32 handle.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 154.78/155.22

· Support: 152.70/152.25

USD/JPY climbed sharply to 154.08, its highest level since February, as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose stance while Powell’s remarks reinforced dollar strength. The pair remains supported above the ascending trendline near 152.70, with resistance seen at 154.78–155.22. A firm U.S. dollar and dovish BoJ tone could sustain the uptrend toward 155.00 in the near term.

US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)

· Resistance: 61.89/62.92

· Support: 59.45/58.63

WTI crude traded flat around $60.27 as investors weighed optimism over the new U.S.–China trade deal and awaited clarity from the Nov 2 OPEC+ meeting. The short-term structure shows prices consolidating between the $59.45 support level and the $61.89 resistance level. A breakout above $61.89 could open room toward $63.00, while a drop below $59.45 may trigger renewed selling pressure toward $58.63.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4111/4163

· Support: 3944/3893

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 49.17/50.18

-Support: 47.16/45.90

Spot gold surged 2.4% to $4,028/oz, buoyed by the Fed’s rate cut and lingering uncertainty over the U.S.–China trade deal’s real impact. The metal holds firm above the $4,000 psychological mark, with resistance seen at $4,111–4,163. A clear break above could lead to further gains, while dips toward $3,944–$3,893 may attract renewed buying interest along the uptrend line.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 47846/48036

· Support: 47234/47050

The Dow futures dipped 0.23% to 47,522, pressured by weakness in major tech stocks and Powell’s cautious post-Fed comments. The index consolidates between 47,234 support and 47,846 resistance. A rebound from current levels could spark short-term recovery momentum, though sustained weakness below 47,050 may expose the 47,000–46,800 zone.

NAS100

· Resistance: 26036/26181

· Support: 25576/25428

NAS100 slid 1.57%, pressured by Meta’s 11% plunge and investor worries over AI spending overruns. Technically, the index consolidates near 25,700, with the chart indicating potential for a short-term rebound if the 25,576 support level holds. A recovery above 26,036 could open the door toward 26,181.

BTC        

· Resistance: 111509/113404

· Support: 107008/105524

Bitcoin slipped to $108,000 after the Trump–Xi meeting and Powell’s cautious tone dimmed risk appetite. The price remains capped by the downtrend line near $111,509, with key support at $107,008. A rejection from resistance could trigger another leg lower toward $105,524.

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