ATFX ​Market Outlook 4th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th August 2025

Double Blow: Weak Jobs Data and Trump’s Tariffs Shake Global Markets

Market HighlightU.S. President Trump’s latest wave of tariffs on dozens of trade partners sent global stock markets tumbling Friday. The new tariffs take effect on August 7. Meanwhile, U.S. job growth sharply slowed, adding just 73,000 jobs—the smallest gain in nearly five years—while prior months’ figures were revised down. The jobless rate rose to 4.248%, fueling expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.

U.S. stocks plunged, with the Nasdaq marking its worst day since April 21 and the S&P 500 since May 21. All three major indexes dropped over 2% for the week. The dollar saw its steepest daily drop since April. Weaker July jobs and sharp downward revisions to June data increased bets on Fed cuts. The DXY fell 1.06% to 98.97. EUR/USD rose 1.16% to 1.1547; USD/JPY slid 2.01% to 147.7.

Gold jumped nearly 2% to a one-week high as weak data and new tariffs lifted safe-haven demand. Spot gold rose 2.2% to $3362.51, up 0.8% on the week. Oil dropped about $2 on OPEC+ supply fears and weak U.S. data, though WTI still gained 6.29% weekly.

Key Outlook

Today's market continues to digest the impact of Trump’s new tariffs and the weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data. On the data front, attention turns to the Eurozone’s August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, which is expected to continue its recovery trend. In the U.S., focus will be on June factory orders, which are projected to slow sharply to -4.8% after a strong 8.2% increase in the previous month.

Key Data and Events Today: 

16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence **

22:00 US Factory Orders MoM JUN **

Tomorrow: 

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes *** 

08:30 JP Services PMI Final JUL **

09:45 CN Caixin Services PMI JUL ** 

15:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final JUL **

16:00 EU Services PMI Final JUL **

16:30 GB Services PMI Final JUL ** 

17:00 EU PPI MoM JUN **  

20:30 US Balance of Trade JUN ** 

21:45 US Services PMI Final JUL ** 

22:00 US ISM Services PMI JUL **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1636/1.1683

· Support: 1.1483/1.1435

EUR/USD surged to 1.1547, gaining 1.16% after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report triggered broad USD selling. September Fed rate cut odds spiked to 86.5%. Focus now shifts to resistance near 1.1636; failure to break may lead to a retest of the 1.1483 support area.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3362/1.3396

· Support: 1.3169/1.3136

GBP/USD climbed with broad USD weakness, briefly hitting a new weekly high. Despite soft UK PMI data, rising Fed rate cut expectations remain the dominant driver. If the 1.3169–1.3180 support zone holds, bulls may aim for the 1.3362 resistance next.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.31/148.69

· Support: 147.14/146.66

USD/JPY tumbled 2.01% to 147.70 following a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and a sharp downward revision to June data. Traders ramped up bets on Fed cuts. Technically, a rebound toward the 148.31 resistance is possible, but sellers may return if that level holds.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 67.73/68.31

· Support: 65.86/65.27

WTI crude fell to $66.92 after OPEC+ advanced its supply restoration plans, raising the September production quota by 548,000 bpd. Price bounced near the $65.86 support, awaiting fresh catalysts.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3394/3413

· Support: 3334/3308

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.24/37.48

· Support: 35.97/35.74

Gold surged to $3357, a 1-week high, driven by safe-haven demand after weak U.S. jobs data and Trump’s new tariff announcement. Key support lies near $3334, with upside potential toward $3394 if the level holds.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44296/44659

· Support: 43138/42781

The Dow Futures plunged 1.23% to 43,588.58, its worst daily drop since May, following disappointing NFP and Trump's tariff move. Price may retest the 44,296 resistance zone and continue its bearish momentum to 43,138 support. Bias remains bearish unless bulls reclaim the 44,296 area.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23107/23354

· Support: 22563/22320

The NAS100 sank 2.24% to 20650.13, pressured by Amazon’s 8.3% drop and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which renewed concerns over growth and Fed policy outlook. Price broke below a major ascending trendline, turning 23107 into resistance. Near-term structure favors a bearish retracement toward 22563 if the pullback fails to break above.

BTC

· Resistance: 116787/117715

· Support: 113785/112841

BTC/USD is rebounding from the 113,785–112,841 support zone, aiming toward the 116,787–117,715 resistance area. Despite broader risk aversion, Bitcoin remains inside a large descending triangle, reflecting indecision amid macro headwinds and regulatory uncertainties.

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