ATFX Market Outlook 4th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th July 2025

No Cut in July: Strong NFP Signals Fed Will Stay the Course

Market HighlightThe U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Traders are now betting that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before September. Meanwhile, the House narrowly passed Trump's major fiscal bill by a vote of 218 to 214. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday, hitting fresh record highs. Chipmaker NVIDIA's market cap neared $4 trillion, while investors were buoyed by stronger-than-expected jobs data, despite diminishing hopes of a rate cut this month. The Dow Jones rose 0.77%, the S&P 500 gained 0.83%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.02%.

Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, including the yen, euro, and Swiss franc, as robust jobs data suggested the Fed may need more time before easing policy.

Gold prices dropped 1%, as the stronger-than-expected NFP reports further undermined expectations for early Fed rate cuts, reducing the appeal of gold. Spot gold fell 0.92% to $3,326.31/oz, after dropping more than 1% earlier in the session. Crude oil prices slipped slightly, as investors worried that U.S. tariffs could dampen energy demand, and major oil producers were expected to boost supply.

Key Outlook

With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, trading activity is likely to be muted, though investors will continue to digest the implications of the strong NFP report. On the data front, Eurozone May PPI will be in focus. Both the YoY and MoM figures are expected to remain in negative territory, with the YoY rate forecast at -0.5% (prior: -2.2%), further supporting the ECB’s case for rate cuts.

Key Data and Events Today: 

U.S. Holiday

15:30 ECB President Speaks ***

17:00 EU PPI MAY ** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: Eurozone Industrial Production and Retail Sales

Tuesday: RBA Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Wednesday: China CPI and PPI, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Thursday: FOMC Minutes, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: Germany CPI, GB GDP and Industrial Production, Canada Jobs Reports

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1787 / 1.1831

· Support: 1.1741 / 1.1686

The euro dropped for a second consecutive session to 1.1753 after U.S. NFP data beat expectations, boosting the dollar and reducing bets for a July Fed rate cut. Technically, the EUR/USD broke below the rising trendline and is now capped below 1.1787. The price is likely to retest 1.1741, with a deeper downside toward 1.1686 if the support level fails.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3690 / 1.3740

· Support: 1.3579 / 1.3529

GBP/USD rebounded to 1.3646, finding support after No.10 Downing Street reaffirmed its backing for Chancellor Reeves, easing political jitters. Technically, the pair remains in an ascending channel, with key support at 1.3529–1.3579. As long as this zone remains intact, the price is expected to resume its upward trajectory.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 145.35 / 145.98

· Support: 143.95/143.31

USD/JPY surged to 145.08 after strong U.S. jobs data reduced rate cut bets and pushed Treasury yields higher. The pair is now pulling back toward the 143.95–144.00 support level; holding above this zone could trigger a move to 145.35.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 68.98/ 70.53

· Support: 65.48/ 63.96

WTI crude bounced near $66 despite concerns over demand from U.S. tariff threats and OPEC+ supply risks. As long as $65.50 support holds, the rebound could extend toward $68.99.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3340/3358

· Support: 3304/3282

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.01/37.31

· Support: 36.28/36.04

Gold slipped to $3,330 as strong U.S. NFP data weakened bets on a Fed rate cut, boosting yields and the dollar. Price remains capped below the $3,340 resistance and trendline. If $3,324 breaks, further downside toward the $3,304 support zone is likely.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45207/45911

· Support: 44280/43539

Dow Futures climbed to 44,828, up 0.77%, as tech gains and optimism over economic resilience lifted sentiment. Price remains within an ascending channel, with resistance near 45,207 in focus. Light volume due to the U.S. holiday limited upside momentum.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23564/24417

· Support: 22223/21381

NAS100 surged 1.02% to 22,802, setting new highs as strong U.S. jobs data reinforced confidence in the economy. While bets on rate cuts faded, risk appetite remained strong. Price eyes 23,564 as next resistance, with support near 22,223.

BTC

· Resistance: 110587/112021

· Support: 108757/107322

Bitcoin remains steady near $109,500 after briefly touching $110,587. Traders are watching a break above the $110,000–$110,500 resistance zone, which could open the path toward $112,210. Support levels are seen at $108,757 and $107,322.

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