ATFX Market Outlook 4th November 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th November 2025

Dollar Rises amid Fed Policy Uncertainty; Wall Street Ends Mixed

Market Highlight

U.S. equities ended mixed on Monday, with AI-related trades driving most of the gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.17% and 0.46% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.48%. The absence of fresh U.S. economic data and increasingly uncertain comments from Federal Reserve officials left markets guessing about the short-term monetary policy path. Despite U.S. manufacturing activity contracting for the eighth consecutive month in October, the dollar extended its rebound as investors grew doubtful about the likelihood of another Fed rate cut this year.

Gold prices steadied, hovering around the key $ 4,000-per-ounce mark amid a lack of clear direction. Traders are awaiting U.S. private-sector employment data later this week for further cues. Oil prices steadied as markets balanced OPEC+’s latest production increases against reports that the group may pause additional output hikes in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, concerns about potential oversupply and weaker Asian factory data limited gains.

Key Outlook

Today’s spotlight is on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision. With inflation rising to its highest level in over a year and signs that price pressures are spreading across the economy, markets have essentially ruled out a rate cut this month. Investors will closely watch the RBA’s updated economic forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks to gauge whether there is any scope for policy easing before year-end.

Key Data and Events Today

08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **  

11:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***  

12:30 RBA Press Conference ***  

Tomorrow: 

05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***  

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes *** 

15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM SEP ** 

16:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final OCT ** 

17:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final OCT ** 

17:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final OCT **  

18:00 EU PPI MoM SEP **  

21:15 US ADP Employment Change OCT *** 

22:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final OCT ** 

23:00 US ISM Services PMI OCT **

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1540/1.1569

· Support: 1.1467/1.1445

EUR/USD extended its decline to around 1.1500, staying capped below the descending trendline amid persistent dollar strength. The pair remains weighed by the Fed’s hawkish tone and data uncertainty from the U.S. shutdown. A decisive break below 1.1467 could open room for further downside.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3162/1.3195

· Support: 1.3057/1.3024

GBP/USD hovered near 1.3120, struggling to find direction as renewed BoE rate-cut expectations and risk-off sentiment weighed on the pound. The pair remains under a persistent downtrend, with multiple failed attempts to break above 1.3162 hinting at fading bullish momentum. A clean break below 1.3057 could trigger a sharper drop toward the psychological 1.3000 mark, while only a rebound above 1.3162 would ease the bearish bias.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 154.77/155.22

· Support: 153.72/153.27

USD/JPY hovered around 154.10, staying resilient as the wide U.S.–Japan yield gap continued to attract dollar demand. The pair remains firmly above its ascending trendline, with 153.72–153.27 acting as a key demand zone. If momentum holds, a breakout above 154.77 could pave the way for 155.22, although a failure to sustain gains may trigger a short-term pullback to retest support.

US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)

· Resistance: 61.82/62.16

· Support: 60.36/60.00

WTI held steady around $60.9, supported by OPEC+’s plan to pause supply hikes in early 2026. The price remains above key support at $60.36, signaling continued buyer interest. A breakout above $61.82 could extend gains toward $62.50, while a failure to hold may keep oil range bound.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4056/4089

· Support: 3952/3919

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 48.85/49.43

-Support: 47.48/47.01

Spot gold steadied near $3,995, consolidating around the key $4,000 level as traders awaited the upcoming ADP and ISM data for cues. A sustained move above $4,056 could revive bullish momentum toward $4,100, while a break below $3,919 risks accelerating losses toward $3,900.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 47653/47801

· Support: 47023/46868

The Dow futures slipped 0.48% to 47,336, dragged lower by weakness in healthcare stocks, though tech strength helped limit losses. The index remains supported near 47,023, with buyers likely to defend that zone. A rebound above 47,653 could open room toward 47,801, while a sustained drop below the trendline would signal waning momentum.

NAS100

· Resistance: 26178/26292

· Support: 25802/25686

NAS100 gained 0.46%, lifted by strong tech and AI momentum following Amazon’s $38B deal with OpenAI. The index remains in a consolidation phase, reflecting investor caution before key U.S. data releases. A breakout above 26,178 could extend gains, while a dip below 25,802 may trigger short-term profit-taking.

BTC        

· Resistance: 108167/108730

· Support: 105217/104502

Bitcoin extended its slide to around $107,000, breaking its seven-year “Uptober” winning streak after falling over 5% in October. The broader crypto market remains weak amid cooling risk appetite and lingering Fed hawkishness. Technically, the pair faces resistance near $108,167, with support at $105,217 — a breakdown below may expose further downside pressure.

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