ATFX Market Outlook 6th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 6th August 2025

Rising Tariff Risks Push Gold to Near Two-Week Peak

Market HighlightU.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday after the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.1, reflecting ongoing pressure from tariff policy uncertainty. Earnings updates from Yum! Brands and others also highlighted tariff impacts, prompting investors to reassess trade risks. The Dow slipped 0.1%, the S&P 500 declined 0.49%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.65%. 

U.S. Treasury yields rose after three consecutive days of declines, while the dollar edged higher but remained near last Friday’s lows. Weak jobs data continued to reinforce expectations of a September Fed rate cut, with markets also focusing on President Trump’s upcoming nominations for the Federal Reserve Board and the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Dollar Index advanced 0.2% to 98.81, USD/JPY gained 0.4% to 147.66, and EUR/USD stayed steady at 1.1569. 

Gold surged to a near two-week high, supported by stronger rate cut expectations and anticipation of Trump’s Fed appointments, with spot prices rising 0.25% to $3,381.20 per ounce after reaching their highest level since July 24. Oil prices retreated as a supply increase from OPEC+ and concerns over weak global demand outweighed the impact of Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil.

Key Outlook

The eurozone will release June retail sales data. Markets are looking forward to seeing whether the decline will extend or, as expected, rebound. Forecasts call for a 0.4% increase month-on-month (previous: -0.7%). As a key indicator of consumer spending, this data will offer fresh insights into the eurozone’s economic recovery.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders JUN ** 

17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM JUN ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

Tomorrow: 

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM JUN **  

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***

19:30 BoE Press Conference *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1636/1.1683

· Support: 1.1483/1.1435

EUR/USD held steady at 1.1569 as the dollar consolidated after recent declines. With markets pricing in a 91% probability of a September Fed rate cut, upside for the greenback remains capped. Technically, the pair faces resistance near 1.1636, while support lies at 1.1483. A potential pullback toward the support zone could attract buyers for a rebound toward the 1.1636 level.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3335/1.3362

· Support: 1.3220/1.3193

GBP/USD hovered near 1.3300 in subdued trade ahead of Thursday’s BoE decision, where markets anticipate a 25-bps cut by a 7–3 vote. Weak US ISM Services PMI data dampened risk appetite. Technically, the pair faces resistance near 1.3335, with support at 1.3220. A rejection from resistance could see renewed downside toward 1.3220.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.39/148.99

· Support: 147.19/146.60

USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 147.66 as a stronger dollar lent support, with BoJ minutes suggesting potential rate hikes once U.S. tariff tensions ease. Technically, the pair is testing a descending trendline near 147.70, with key resistance at 148.39 and support at 147.19. A breakout above the trendline could open the path toward 148.39.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.22/66.91

· Support: 64.69/64.01

WTI crude slid 1.7% to $65.16, hitting a five-week low as OPEC+ supply rose by 547,000 bpd and demand concerns persisted. Price broke below trendline support, with key resistance at $66.22 and support near $64.69.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3394/3414

· Support: 3354/3333

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.26/38.50

· Support: 37.24/36.99

Gold climbed 0.2% to $3,380.20, near a two-week high, as rising Fed rate cut expectations and anticipation of Trump’s Fed appointments supported prices. The metal is hovering just below $3,394 resistance, with $3,354 as key support; a breakout or breakdown from this range could set the next short-term direction.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44655/45006

· Support: 43851/43494

The Dow futures slipped 0.14% to 44,111.74, pressured by tariff concerns. Index consolidates between 44,655 resistance and 43,851 support; holding support could spark a rebound, while a break lower may extend the pullback.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23354/23594

· Support: 22806/22563

NAS100 lost 0.65% at 20,916.55, weighed by tariff concerns and cautious corporate outlooks. Technically, resistance at 23,354 is capping gains, with the index likely to range between 23,354 resistance and 22,806 support in the short term. A break below support could trigger a deeper retracement.

BTC

· Resistance: 115860/116787

· Support: 112841/111929

Bitcoin holds nearly $113,733 after repeated rejections from $120K. On-chain data shows “old whales” idle and “new whales” defending $105K breakeven, capping sell pressure. Price is between support at 111,929 and resistance at 115,860–116,787; breakouts could target 109,245 or above 118,000.

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