ATFX Market Outlook 6th January 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 6th January 2025

Steady Futures as Wall Street Rides Tech Surge Ahead of Key Job Data

Opinion Today:

Some Federal Reserve officials suggested that the Fed may need to maintain a restrictive policy longer due to inflation risks. Despite this, U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday, with the S&P 500 ending its longest losing streak since April last year, marking its largest single-day gain since Trump's victory. However, all three major stock indexes recorded slight weekly declines.

The dollar weakened on Friday but still had its strongest weekly performance in a month. The market expects the U.S. economy to outperform others this year, keeping interest rates relatively high. The euro rose 0.42% to 1.0308, while the pound increased 0.32% to 1.2420. The dollar fell 0.16% to 157.27 against the yen.

Gold prices fell from a three-week high as the market anticipated potential changes under Trump, dropping by 0.68% to $2,639.12 an ounce. In contrast, oil prices rose due to cold weather in Europe and the U.S. and hopes for economic stimulus from China, with U.S. crude futures reaching their highest level since October 11 and gaining nearly 5% for the week.

Today, focus on December's final PMI and service industry performance in various countries. Germany will announce its December CPI later today, potentially maintaining a 2.2% growth rate for the second consecutive month. U.S. factory orders for November are expected to show negative growth.

Key Data:

16:55 EU Germany Services & Composite PMI Final DEC ** 

17:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final DEC ** 

17:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final DEC ** 

21:00 EU Germany CPI YoY DEC ***

22:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final DEC *** 

23:00 US Factory Order NOV ** 

Tomorrow

23:00 US ISM Services PMI DEC *** 

EUR/USD

1.0341/1.0369 Resistance

1.0279/1.0251 Support 

The euro ended its four-day losing streak against the dollar last Friday with a significant gain, but it still fell 1.2% for the week, its worst performance since early November. It is around the 1.0300 mark but needs further breakthroughs to rebound. The previous low of 1.0344 has become a resistance level, crucial for determining whether it can escape its current decline.

GBP/USD

1.2478/1.2508 Resistance 

1.2379/1.2349 Support 

The GBP/USD pair rebounded slightly last Friday but ended the week down 1.1%, the largest drop since early November. It needs to stay above 1.2400 to gain momentum, with key resistance at 1.2500 (10-day moving average) and 1.2478.

USD/JPY

157.78/158.09 Resistance

156.81/156.51 Support 

USD/JPY fell slightly along with the US dollar last Friday but only recorded a slight decline. Technically, the pair fails to break away from the high range. This morning, it rebounded with the support of the 10-day moving average. Technically, the pair breaking through the 158 mark is the key to breaking through; otherwise, the pair will continue to maintain a range pattern.

USD/CAD

1.4467/1.4482 Resistance

1.4385/1.4366 Support

Despite the decline of the US dollar and rising international oil prices, the USD/CAD rose last Friday, reaching levels near the December 19 high. The key resistance remains at 1.4467; if not broken, the pair may test support at the 10-day moving average of 1.4390.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Feb)

74.71/75.06 Resistance 

73.58/73.23 Support

Crude prices have risen due to colder weather in Europe and the U.S., boosting demand. Last Friday, crude price closed above $74, the highest since early October last year. If prices exceed this level, they may target above $75 and near the previous highs.

Spot Gold

2664/2674 Resistance

2623/2614 Support

Spot Silver

30.21/30.45 Resistance

29.21/28.96 Support 

Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. bond yields stayed strong. Last Friday, gold prices fell slightly after reaching a high since December 13, settling just above $2,665. Currently, the price supported by the 10-day moving average, gold is expected to recover some losses and rise above $2,660 again.

US30

42952/43267 Resistance 

42450/42130 Support 

U.S. manufacturing data surpassed expectations, resulting in a notable rally in the stock market last Friday. The Dow futures ended four consecutive declines and achieved its largest gain over a week. Investors should watch for the 10-day moving average near 42,800, as failure to break through may lead to a drop below 42,400.

NAS100

21439/21706 Resistance

21008/20792 Support 

NAS100 rebounded last Friday, with all major technology companies except Apple showing gains. Tesla surged over 8%, its largest single-day increase since November 12 last year, while the Nasdaq posted its biggest gain since December 20. The index is now at the 10-day moving average, making the breakthrough crucial for a continued rebound.

BTC (Bitcoin)

99953/100954 Resistance,

96654/95635 Support

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is nearing a crucial resistance of $99,953. A breakout could target $100,954 and test an all-time high of $108,379. Conversely, a drop below $96,654 may lead to a decline toward $95,000. Investors should consider poised for a pullback ahead of the US job data.