ATFX ​Market Outlook 6th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 6th October 2025

Japan’s First Female Prime Minister, Nikkei Hits Record High

Market HighlightOver the weekend, Sanae Takaichi, known for her dovish fiscal stance, was elected leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, paving the way for her to become the country’s first female prime minister. Japanese equities surged to record highs, with the Nikkei 225 jumping about 4% to 47,789, and the Topix climbing nearly 3% to 3,219.90.

Her dovish stance lowered market expectations for a rate hike from 68% to 44%, driving a sharp depreciation of the yen. USD/JPY broke above 149.7, while EUR/JPY hit an all-time low. Investors anticipate that Japan will continue with accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, including tax cuts and subsidies, while the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain steady rates.

On Wall Street, enthusiasm and expectations for further Fed rate cuts, driven by AI-related developments, fueled a rally in tech stocks, with major indices repeatedly hitting record highs last week. Dow futures rose 0.2% to 47,144.0, S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% to 6,782.25, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.4% to 25,083.75. Meanwhile, concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and global monetary easing lifted safe-haven demand for gold, pushing prices above $3,900, while silver rebounded to recover last Friday’s losses. Crude oil prices also recovered, with WTI returning to $61 and nearing $62 after markets digested OPEC’s output hike outlook.

Key Outlook

Today’s calendar is light, with attention on Eurozone data. Sentix confidence and retail sales are expected to improve, which should support the euro. Markets also look to Tuesday’s U.S. trade balance and Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting, where a 25 bp rate cut is widely anticipated.

Key Data and Events Today:

China Holiday

16:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence OCT **

17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM AUG **

Tomorrow: 

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM AUG **

20:30 US Balance of Trade AUG **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1758/1.1789

· Support: 1.1659/1.1629

The euro inched higher to 1.1718 as the dollar remained pressured by the prolonged U.S. shutdown, although traders remained cautious with key jobs data delayed. Technically, EUR/USD is facing a descending trendline cap, with resistance located near 1.1758. A failure to break higher risks renewed downside toward the 1.1659 support level.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3491/1.3526

· Support: 1.3374/1.3346

Sterling held near 1.3445 with modest gains as the dollar weakened, but sentiment remains fragile on looming UK budget risks in November. Technically, GBP/USD is capped by a descending trendline, with resistance near 1.3491. Failure to reclaim this level could result in pressure toward the 1.3374 support.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 150.34/150.75

· Support: 149.06/148.67

The yen held firm near 149.80, underpinned by the BoJ’s hawkish stance. Dollar/yen briefly dipped to 146.58 yesterday but rebounded sharply, now testing 150.00. Technically, as long as the pair stays above the 148.67 support level, momentum favors a retest of 150.34, with caution as expectations of a Fed cut linger.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 62.32/62.88

· Support: 60.47/59.75

WTI crude traded near $61.5, weighed down by OPEC+’s plan to raise output by 137,000 bpd from November. Persistent oversupply concerns cap rebounds, with $62.32 acting as resistance and downside risk extending to $60.47 if sellers regain control.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3924/3933

· Support: 3884/3875

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 48.54/48.86

-Support: 47.72/47.47

Spot gold traded around $3,902 after briefly touching a record high of $3,919, extending gains for a seventh consecutive week. Safe-haven demand remains strong, driven by concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and growing expectations for Fed rate cuts. Technically, price is moving firmly within an ascending channel, with support at $3,884 and resistance at $3,924. The breakout above could open the way toward $3,950.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 47083/47189

· Support: 46583/46475

The Dow Futures gained 0.51% to close at 46,758, marking another record high, led by gains in healthcare and utilities. Despite concerns about the U.S. shutdown, the index remains bullish above the 46,583 support level, with 47,083 as the next resistance target.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24921/25009

· Support: 24694/24626

NAS100 slipped 0.28%, weighed down by losses in tech and semiconductor stocks. Despite the pullback, the index remains supported above 24,694, with near-term resistance at 24,921. Price action suggests consolidation before another attempt at a higher level, although sentiment remains fragile amid sectoral weakness.

BTC

· Resistance: 125895/127271

· Support: 121563/120168

Bitcoin soared to a record $125,296 in Asian trade, surpassing its August peak and reinforcing bullish momentum. Institutional inflows and Trump’s crypto-friendly stance boosted sentiment, with Standard Chartered seeing potential for prices to reach $135,000. Technically, holding above $121,563 maintains a positive bias, targeting $125,895–$ 127,271.

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