ATFX ​Market Outlook 7th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 7th August 2025

Apple’s $100B Pledge Lifts Stocks; BoE Rate Cut Expectations Intensify

Market HighlightFormer U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose around 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips. U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq leading gains, rising over 1%, as Apple surged 5.1% following news of a $100 billion domestic investment pledge. Optimistic corporate earnings also support sentiment. The Dow rose 0.18%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.2%.

The euro reached a one-week high as the dollar weakened, driven by bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more than previously expected after softer-than-expected U.S. July employment data. The dollar index fell 0.56% to 98.18 in New York. EUR/USD rose 0.76% to 1.1662, its highest level since July 28. USD/JPY declined 0.35% to 147.09, and GBP/USD climbed 0.47% to 1.3362.

Gold prices retreated as investors took profits after prices hit a nearly two-week high in the previous session, while attention shifted to Trump’s upcoming Fed nominations. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3369.90 per ounce. Oil prices dropped around 1% to an eight-week low after Trump’s remarks on progress in talks with Moscow created uncertainty over potential new sanctions on Russia.

Key Outlook

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates from 4.25% to 4.00% tonight amid weak growth and softening labor demand, marking its third cut this year. Despite rising inflation, a dovish stance may persist, pressuring the pound. U.S. jobless claims are forecast to rise slightly to 221,000.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM JUN **  

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***

19:30 BoE Press Conference *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

Tomorrow: 

07:50 BoJ Summary of Opinions ** 

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUL **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1683/1.1730

· Support: 1.1589/1.1542

Weaker U.S. jobs data fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, lifting EUR/USD to 1.1662. Technically, the pair broke above the 0.618 Fib level (1.1638); if 1.1589 holds as support, a push toward 1.1683 and 1.1730 remains likely.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3418/1.3471

· Support: 1.3311/1.3245

The BoE is expected to cut rates to 4% tonight, which is its third cut this year. Despite inflation pressure, cooling labor data may prompt a dovish tone. GBP/USD holds above 1.3311 and may target 1.3418 if post-decision sentiment favors bulls.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.39/148.99

· Support: 147.19/146.60

USD/JPY fell to 147.09 amid rising Fed cut bets and BoJ caution. However, price is holding above the 147.19 support and ascending trendline, suggesting a potential rebound toward 148.39 if stabilized.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.22/66.91

· Support: 64.01/63.31

WTI slid to $64.35 as easing Russia sanction risks and OPEC+ supply concerns weighed on sentiment. Price is nearing $64.01 support; failure to break the trendline may lead to further downside.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3394/3414

· Support: 3353/3333

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.26/38.50

· Support: 37.48/37.24

Gold eased to $3,373/oz after profit-taking from a two-week high. Market eyes Fed chair nomination, while price holds above trendline support with resistance seen near $3,394.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44655/45006

· Support: 43851/43494

The Dow futures climbed to 44,193.12 after Apple’s pledge to expand U.S. manufacturing lifted sentiment. Price is now approaching the 44,655 resistance zone; failure to break above could prompt renewed downward pressure.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23454/23589

· Support: 23134/23027

NAS100 surged 1.21% to 21,169.42 on strong tech earnings but faces overhead resistance at 23,454. A rejection near 23,454 may cause a retracement to the rising trendline support; failing to hold could trigger a corrective pullback.

BTC

· Resistance: 116787/117715

· Support: 113784/112841

BTC consolidates around $114,800, maintaining trendline support with potential upside towards $116,787. Binance data indicates decreasing leverage, suggesting a risk-off sentiment and possible stabilisation across the crypto market after recent shakeouts.

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