ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 7th July 2025

Crude Rises on Supply Boost, but U.S. Tariff Countdown Dominates Market Focus

Market HighlightU.S. markets were closed last Friday for the Independence Day holiday. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after President Trump’s landmark tax cut bill was passed, amid mounting pressure on countries to strike trade deals with Washington. As markets brace for the July 9 tariff deadline—targeting countries like Japan that have yet to reach agreements—the dollar index slipped 0.1% to 96.92. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on Sunday that the U.S. is nearing the completion of several trade agreements and anticipates major announcements in the coming days.

With the deadline approaching, some risk-off flows supported gold, which rose 0.33% on Friday to $3,337 per ounce, posting a 1.9% weekly gain. Crude oil futures dipped slightly on Friday amid thin holiday trading, though U.S. crude rose 2% on the week as markets focused on the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting and possible supply increases.

Key Outlook

This week will be packed with significant events, including the fast-approaching U.S. tariff deadline, interest rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, and the release of the FOMC minutes. These developments could spark significant volatility across markets. In today’s session, the eurozone’s May retail sales data will be closely watched for signs of moderate growth. However, markets are hoping for stronger figures to support the recent euro rally.

Key Data and Events Today: 

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MAY ** 

17:00 EU Retail Sales MAY ** 

Tomorrow

12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***

13:30 RBA Press Conference *** 

23:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations JUN **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1813 / 1.1830

· Support: 1.1742 / 1.1728

EUR/USD remains supported as Trump’s $3.4 trillion spending plan revives U.S. debt concerns, pushing the dollar lower. The pair is testing a descending trendline near the 1.1813 resistance level. A breakout may open further upside, while a drop below 1.1742 would negate the bullish bias.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3690 / 1.3740

· Support: 1.3579 / 1.3529

GBP/USD starts the week under pressure due to rising expectations of a BoE rate cut, but USD remains capped by fiscal concerns over Trump’s new spending bill. With FOMC minutes due Wednesday, traders stay cautious as the pair consolidates near 1.3600. Technically, as long as 1.3579 support remains intact, a break above 1.3690 could lead to another move toward the 1.38 zone.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 144.73 / 145.36

· Support: 143.95/143.31

Despite solid U.S. NFP data, the USD/JPY retreats to 144.32 as safe-haven flows return amid heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt. Technically, the pair remains capped by a descending trendline. A failure to break above 144.73 may trigger another decline toward the 143.95 support level.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 67.05/ 68.97

· Support: 63.96/ 62.42

WTI crude dips to $64.94 after OPEC+ announced a bigger-than-expected August hike, retreating below $67.05 resistance. A break below $63.96 may trigger further losses. ING says bearish supply and uncertain demand keep oil under pressure.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3358/3376

· Support: 3304/3282

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.01/37.31

· Support: 36.29/36.05

Gold hovers near $3,310 as optimism over extended US trade talks weakens safe-haven demand. Trump’s tariff threats limit the downside. Technically, XAU/USD holds $3,304 support; a break above $3,345 may target $3,358, while a loss of $3,304 risks a further drop.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45207/45911

· Support: 44280/43539

The Dow Futures trade near record highs at 44,828 after strong June NFP (147K vs 110K) eased recession worries. Thin liquidity ahead of the July 4th holiday kept price action muted. Technically, the structure remains bullish above 44,280, with the next target at 45,207.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23564/24417

· Support: 22223/21381

The NAS100 rallied to a record close at 20,601.10, marking its third weekly gain. Nvidia led the charge, climbing 1.3% as it approached a $4 trillion valuation. Rate concerns were brushed aside as bullish tech momentum dominated. The structure remains bullish, eyeing 23,564.

BTC

· Resistance: 110587/112021

· Support: 107322/105863

BTC/USD remains supported above 107,322, consolidating within a bullish continuation structure. As long as price holds this breakout level, a push toward the key resistance at 112,021 remains likely.

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