ATFX Market Outlook 7th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 7th October 2025

AI Rally Lifts Nasdaq to Record Highs, Uncertainty Drives Gold Near $4,000

Market HighlightU.S. stocks ended mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing as AI-driven trades boosted investor sentiment, despite the government shutdown entering its sixth day. The Dow slipped 0.14%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.36% and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%, both closing at record highs. The dollar index strengthened, while political turmoil in France pushed the euro and sterling lower, with EUR/USD dropping 0.26% to 1.171 and USD/JPY reaching its highest level since August 1.

Gold surged 1.9% to a new high, nearing $4,000 per ounce, as the U.S. shutdown and France’s political crisis added to market uncertainty. Oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected increase in November output, easing some supply concerns despite a weak demand outlook.

Key Outlook

Today’s calendar is relatively light, with focus on U.S. data. The August trade balance is expected to show a narrow deficit after hitting a four-month high, while the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations could stabilize following recent inflation figures in line with forecasts.

Key Data and Events Today

China & Hong Kong Holiday 

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders AUG **

20:30 CA Balance of Trade AUG ** 

20:30 US Balance of Trade AUG ** 

Tomorrow: 

China Holiday

00:00 EIA Monthly Report ** 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

07:50 US Balance of Trade AUG ** 

09:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision *** 

10:00 RBNZ Governor Press Conference *** 

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production AUG ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1762/1.1799

· Support: 1.1652/1.1605

The euro slipped to 1.1710, briefly testing 1.1652, after France’s political turmoil deepened with Prime Minister Lecornu resigning just hours after taking office. Investor confidence remains fragile ahead of today’s Eurozone Sentix survey and retail sales data. Technically, EUR/USD remains above the 1.1652 support level, but downside risks persist under the descending trendline. Resistance lies near 1.1762.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3528/1.3572

· Support: 1.3419/1.3370

GBP/USD held steady around 1.3470 as the U.S. government shutdown stretched into its sixth day, keeping markets without key data. Sterling gained only slight support from a modest Construction PMI uptick, while ONS revisions raised concerns over household savings. Technically, resistance is located near 1.3528–1.3572, while a break below 1.3419 would risk deeper losses toward 1.3370.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 150.75/151.25

· Support: 149.95/149.45

The yen weakened sharply as USD/JPY surged past 150.20, marking the most significant one-day rise since May. The move followed the election of dovish LDP leader Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister, which lowered market expectations for near-term rate hikes. Technically, a hold above 149.95 maintains bullish momentum, with scope to test 150.75–151.25.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 62.32/62.87

· Support: 61.05/60.48

Oil prices advanced, with WTI closing near $61.70 and Brent at $65.47, after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production hike for November. However, the weak demand outlook continues to weigh on sentiment. Technically, resistance stands at $62.32, while a break below $61.05 could trigger a deeper downside.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3984/3993

· Support: 3936/3927

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 48.85/49.09

-Support: 48.03/47.72

Gold surged to a fresh record high of $3,976 before easing to $3,971, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, the U.S. government shutdown, and political uncertainty in France and Japan. UBS has raised its year-end target to $4,200, citing strong demand for safe-haven assets. Technically, momentum remains bullish above $3,936, with resistance at $3,984.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46934/47073

· Support: 46468/46358

The Dow Futures slipped 0.14% to 46,695 as investor caution grew amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, while the upcoming Q3 earnings season adds to uncertainty. Consumer stocks provided some support, while real estate lagged behind. Technically, support lies near 46,468, with resistance at 46,934.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25080/25150

· Support: 24922/24850

NAS100 jumped 0.71%, driven by substantial gains in AI-related tech stocks. AMD surged nearly 24% after announcing a deal to supply chips to OpenAI, boosting optimism across the semiconductor sector. Technically, support is located around 24,922, while upside targets are positioned near 25,080.

BTC

· Resistance: 127299/128381

· Support: 122634/121570

Bitcoin reached a new record high of $125,836, marking year-to-date gains of over 33%. Institutional inflows, supportive U.S. policy signals, and dollar weakness continue to drive momentum. Technically, holding above $122,400 maintains the bullish trend, with resistance near $127,299 and support around $122,634. Short-term consolidation is possible before further upside potential is realised.

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