ATFX Market Outlook 8th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 8th October 2025

U.S. Stocks Fall on Data Void; Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Gold Futures Above $4,000

Market HighlightU.S. equities closed lower on Tuesday as investors, unable to rely on key economic data due to the government shutdown, turned to secondary indicators and remarks from Fed officials for clues on economic weakness and policy direction. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.38%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.67%. Mounting concerns over the prolonged shutdown fueled safe-haven demand, lifting the U.S. Dollar Index.

Boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month and persistent safe-haven flows amid the U.S. government shutdown, precious metals repeatedly set new records. U.S. gold futures broke above the $4,000 per ounce milestone on Tuesday. Oil prices held steady, as traders weighed OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected November output hike against signs of potential oversupply.

Key Outlook

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its policy decision, with markets widely expecting a significant rate cut. Given the sharp decline in recent economic activity, a cut of up to 50 basis points is possible. Swap markets now reflect rising odds of another 50 bp reduction next month, in addition to cuts at the RBNZ’s remaining meetings this year. Looking ahead, the Fed’s meeting minutes due early Thursday will be closely watched for signals on its stance after resuming rate cuts.

Key Data and Events Today

China Holiday  

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production AUG **21:30 Fed Vice Chair Barr Speaks ***22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **23:00 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks ***

 Tomorrow: 

03:00 FOMC Minutes ***   

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks ***

22:00 US Wholesale Sales AUG **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1688/1.1725

· Support: 1.1605/1.1569

EUR/USD dropped toward 1.1650 support after the French PM’s resignation deepened fiscal and political instability. Price failed to sustain above 1.1688 resistance and remained under pressure. If 1.1650 breaks, further downside toward 1.1605 is likely. Upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and retail sales could dictate short-term momentum.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3506/1.3530

· Support: 1.3354/1.3323

GBP/USD hovers around 1.3470, supported by the 1.3400 floor amid U.S. government shutdown uncertainty. Upside remains capped by 1.3506 resistance and a descending trendline, keeping short-term bias tilted lower. A clear break below 1.3354 could pave the way for a move toward 1.3323.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 152.80/153.30

· Support: 152.02/151.63

USD/JPY surged above 152.40, marking its sharpest one-day rally since May, after LDP’s Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female Prime Minister. Her pledge for aggressive fiscal support and criticism of BoJ hikes dampened bets on tightening, sending the yen lower. Technically, if price holds above the 152.02 support zone, the pair could test 152.80 and potentially extend gains toward 153.30.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 62.87/63.44

· Support: 61.05/60.48

Brent rose 1.1% to $65.47 and WTI reached $61.69, supported by OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected November output hike. However, concerns over weak global demand and rising U.S. supply may limit upside momentum. Technically, WTI faces resistance near $62.87, with support at $61.05. A failure to break higher could see prices retest the lower bound.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4004/4013

· Support: 3963/3954

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 48.53/48.85

-Support: 46.98/46.73

Gold hit a fresh record at $3,976, before easing to around $3,971. Prices remain supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and political risks in France and Japan. UBS has raised its year-end target to $4,200, reflecting strong demand for safe havens. Technically, immediate resistance lies at $4,004–4,013, with support around $3,963.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46822/46934

· Support: 46358/46249

The Dow Futures rose 0.51% to 46,758, marking another record high on strength in healthcare and utilities. However, lingering U.S. government shutdown risks triggered a late pullback, with futures slipping 0.14%. Technically, resistance is near 46,822, while support lies at 46,358 within the rising channel.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25012/25080

· Support: 24694/24624

NAS100 climbed 0.71%, lifted by AI-related tech stocks. AMD soared nearly 24% after securing a chip supply deal with OpenAI, fueling optimism across the semiconductor sector. Technically, support is seen at 24,694, while resistance is near 25,012 within the rising channel.

BTC

· Resistance: 124836/125918

· Support: 120170/119050

Bitcoin pulled back to $123,811 after Monday’s record high of $126,199. US-listed spot ETFs posted strong inflows of $1.21B, marking a six-day positive streak since September 29. Institutional demand remains firm, though some profit-taking has emerged. Overall, the Q4 outlook is still bullish, with resistance near $134,836 and support at $120,170.

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