Dollar Firms and Oil Rebounds Ahead of Fed Decision

ATFX Market Outlook | October 28th, 2026

Dollar Firms and Oil Rebounds Ahead of Fed Decision

Key TakeawaysInvestors are preparing for a busy stretch of central bank decisions, economic data and corporate earnings, with interest rates and growth in focus. Alongside these decisions, the UK Budget and Microsoft and Alphabet earnings will provide insights into fiscal policy and business conditions. Attention then turns to tomorrow’s U.S. GDP, core PCE and ECB decision for further signals on growth, inflation and interest rates.

Currency markets have already reacted to one policy surprise: the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates at 2.75%, sending NZD/USD down as much as 1.7%. The dollar remains firm ahead of the remaining announcements. Meanwhile, oil has recovered from Tuesday’s decline as renewed Middle East supply concerns draw attention back to geopolitical risks.

Today’s FocusThe BoC decision at 21:45 and EIA inventories at 22:30 (GMT+8) precede the Fed announcement at 02:00 on October 29 and Chair Warsh’s press conference at 02:30. Markets expect the Fed to hold its 3.75–4.00% target range; guidance on December could still move the Dollar, yields and risk assets. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the October 28 U.S. close, corresponding to early October 29 in GMT+8.

Global Market ReviewTuesday, October 27: Dow added 15.99 points, or 0.03%, to 52,377.57; S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60; and Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18% to 26,477.81, with AI shares leading the gains.

Reference quotes showed the Dollar Index at 102.37 (+0.34%), the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.737% (+2.3 bps), and the 10-year at 4.997% (+0.8 bps). Brent was $114.15 (-1.43%), WTI $99.90 (-1.83%), and gold $4,057.80 (+1.03%). Wednesday’s chart snapshots showed USOIL rebounding to $101.36 and gold easing to $4,046.

Economic CalendarOctober 28 (GMT+8)

04:30 US API Crude Stocks ***

08:30 AU CPI YoY SEP **

09:00 RBNZ Rate Decision ***

15:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence NOV **

21:45 BoC Rate Decision ***

22:30 US EIA Crude Stocks **

Also scheduled: UK Autumn Budget. Microsoft and Alphabet earnings follow the U.S. close (early October 29 in GMT+8).

October 29 (GMT+8)

02:00 Fed Rate Decision ***

02:30 Fed Press Conference ***

18:00 Euro Area Economic Sentiment OCT **

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM SEP ***

20:30 US GDP Annualised QoQ Advance Q3 ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

21:15 ECB Rate Decision ***

21:45 ECB Press Conference ***

Market Analysis 

EUR/USDResistance: 1.1155/1.1173

Support: 1.1095/1.1077

Analyst’s View: A firm Dollar and uncertainty about the Fed’s December rate path continue to weigh on the Euro ahead of consecutive Fed and ECB decisions. Both banks are expected to hold, making their assessment of inflation and future tightening more important than the immediate rate outcome. France’s fiscal uncertainty remains a domestic constraint, despite some relief from Moody’s decision to leave its rating unchanged.

EUR/USD is near 1.1124 after moving lower to 1.1155 and 1.1137. Price is below the descending channel’s midline and near its lower boundary, with 1.1113 as the next intermediate level. A break below 1.1113 would bring 1.1095 and 1.1077 into focus.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

GBP/USDResistance: 1.3312/1.3353

Support: 1.3246/1.3212

Analyst’s View: Today’s UK Budget adds a domestic policy test ahead of the Fed decision. Investors will assess whether the fiscal package can support growth while preserving credibility on public borrowing. UK inflation at 3.5% continues to support expectations of a November BoE hike, but that support may be offset if the Budget disappoints or the Fed signals a more restrictive rate outlook.

GBP/USD is near 1.3301 after retreating from 1.3419 and slipping below 1.3312 within a descending channel. The next intermediate level is 1.3279; a break below it would draw attention to 1.3246 and 1.3212.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish

USD/JPYResistance: 158.20/158.53

Support: 157.52/157.18

Analyst’s View: The U.S.–Japan rate gap continues to favor the dollar as investors await the Fed and Friday’s BoJ decision. However, Japan’s core inflation above 2% keeps further BoJ tightening in view, while official warnings against disorderly currency moves may limit Yen weakness. The pair’s response will therefore depend on whether Fed guidance reinforces expectations of December tightening and how that compares with the BoJ’s outlook.

USD/JPY is near 157.97 after rebounding from the 156.41 area. It is above 157.86 but still below the rising channel’s midline, with resistance at 158.20 and 158.53. Holding above 157.86 would support another attempt to move higher.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish in the Short Term

US Crude Oil FuturesResistance: 103.76/106.68

Support: 99.13/96.80

Analyst’s View: Oil has rebounded after renewed reports of threats to Saudi refining infrastructure brought supply risks back into focus following Tuesday’s diplomacy-driven decline. The Houthis claimed a refinery strike, though Saudi authorities have not yet confirmed the specific impact. API reported a 2.031-million-barrel inventory draw, compared with 4.930 million the previous week. Tonight’s EIA report will provide another check on U.S. inventories, while further diplomatic progress could limit the geopolitical risk premium.

USOIL is near $101.36 after bouncing from around $99.80, but it remains just below the $101.47 Fibonacci level and the rising channel’s midline. Sustaining a move above $101.47 would improve rebound prospects, with $103.76 and $106.68 as the marked resistance levels. Failure to hold the recovery would bring $99.13 back into focus, followed by $96.80.

Bias: Neutral

Spot Gold & Spot SilverSpot Gold Resistance: 4087/4113

Spot Gold Support: 4028/4001

Spot Silver Resistance: 55.63/56.33

Spot Silver Support: 53.34/52.64

Analyst’s View: Gold recovered on Tuesday as falling oil prices eased near-term inflation concerns, despite a firmer Dollar. Wednesday’s oil rebound has brought energy-related price risks back into focus ahead of the Fed. A more restrictive December policy signal could weigh on non-interest-bearing gold, while a less hawkish message could support the recovery. Yields after the announcement will matter, along with the Dollar’s response.

Gold: Rebound stalled near the $4,061 Fibonacci level; gold is still in the lower part of a descending channel. A move back above $4,061 would be an initial improvement, while a break above $4,087–$4,113 would confirm stronger recovery. Below $4,028, focus shifts to $4,001 then $3,975.

Silver: After rebounding from $52.64, silver is around $54.05—above the channel midline but below $54.92. Holding above $54.92 could push toward $55.63 and $56.33. Falling below $54.05 exposes $53.34 and then $52.64, keeping the downtrend in play.

Bias: Gold Neutral to Cautiously Bearish; Silver Cautiously Bearish

Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)Resistance: 52585/52779

Support: 52160/51970

Analyst’s View: Tuesday’s technology-led advance left the Dow only slightly higher, underscoring the uneven strength of the equity recovery. Renewed gains in oil could heighten cost concerns for energy-consuming businesses, while the Fed’s guidance will shape expectations for financing costs. Investors will weigh both the policy message and company earnings forecasts to gauge whether the broader profit outlook can support another move higher.

US30 is near 52,251, below 52,350 and the rising channel’s midline, after the recent rebound lost momentum. The first marked support is 52,160, followed by 51,970. A break below 51,970 would weaken the channel-based recovery.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish

Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)Resistance: 30058/30367

Support: 29439/29135

Analyst’s View: Anthropic’s IPO plans and SK Hynix’s stronger-than-expected results have improved sentiment toward AI and memory-chip shares. Microsoft and Alphabet’s earnings will now test the revenue, cash-flow, and spending assumptions underpinning that recovery. The Fed’s December guidance adds a valuation test: higher expected rates could offset better earnings news, while a less restrictive outlook could support the rebound.

NAS100 is near 29,694 after rebounding from the 28,747 area and trading above the descending channel’s midline. The immediate hurdle is 29,749, followed by the marked resistance zone at 30,058–30,367. Holding above 29,439 would support the recovery.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish in the Short Term

Bitcoin (BTC)Resistance: 81988/82661

Support: 79796/79134

Analyst’s View: Bitcoin has recovered from its earlier move below $80,000, as stronger technology sentiment has lifted risk appetite. Strategy’s pause in weekly purchases removes one source of support buying but does not, by itself, determine the market’s direction. The Fed announcement and major technology earnings remain the immediate catalysts: a more restrictive policy message could challenge the rebound, while improving risk appetite could help it extend.

Bitcoin is near $80,851 after bouncing from the $79,134 support area, near the midline of a short-term rising channel and above $80,481. The next intermediate hurdle is $81,314, followed by resistance at $81,988 and $82,661. Holding above $80,481 would support the recovery. A loss of that level would shift attention to $80,000, then to the marked supports at $79,796 and $79,134.

Bias: Neutral

Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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