Fed Cut Bets Lift Majors as Commodity FX Finds Support | 28th November 2025

Majors Lift on Fed

Major currency pairs are moving broadly higher against the US Dollar today as growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to weigh on the greenback. GBP, AUD, and NZD are benefiting from stronger domestic signals, while China’s latest PBOC fixing keeps Asian FX relatively stable. Softer oil prices add upward pressure on USD/CAD, while market sentiment tilts cautiously optimistic ahead of key US inflation data and month-end flows.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD trades near 1.3250 after extending gains on renewed Fed rate-cut expectations that continue to pressure the US Dollar. The pair remains well-supported as markets lean toward a softer USD heading into key US data.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited geopolitical escalation keeps safe-haven demand for the USD contained.

US Economic Data: Softening US indicators fuel expectations for earlier Fed easing.

FOMC Outcome: Markets increasingly price in a dovish tilt, helping GBP stay supported.

Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions affecting GBP/USD flows

Monetary Policy: BoE remains cautious, but stable UK outlook helps anchor sterling demand.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term trend remains bullish above 1.3200.

Resistance: Initial at 1.3300, followed by 1.3360.

Support: Key support sits at 1.3180 and 1.3120.

Forecast: Momentum favors further upside if USD weakness persists.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders are leaning risk-on, benefiting high-beta currencies like GBP.

Catalysts: US PCE, Fed speeches, and UK PMI data.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD trades near 0.5730, holding close to its monthly top as the RBNZ’s firm inflation stance supports the kiwi. The pair is outperforming many majors as investors rotate into currencies backed by hawkish policy signals.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Low global tensions keep demand steady for risk-linked currencies.

US Economic Data: Mixed US data allows the NZD to maintain relative strength.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed expectations soften USD demand.

Trade Policy: China-related trade sentiment stabilizes, indirectly supporting the NZD.

Monetary Policy: RBNZ’s hawkish tone bolsters NZD interest-rate advantage.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Strong bullish trend above 0.5680.

Resistance: Next resistance at 0.5755 and 0.5790.

Support: Key supports at 0.5700 and 0.5650.

Forecast: A breakout above 0.5755 could open a push toward 0.5800.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Risk-on bias favors high-yield currencies like NZD.

Catalysts:RBNZ commentary, Chinese economic data, US Dollar reaction to Fed expectations.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CNY trades steady after the PBOC set today’s fixing slightly higher, signaling its continued commitment to FX stability. The pair remains in a tight range as China manages capital flows and supports sentiment through controlled currency moves.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Regional tensions remain manageable, supporting CNY stability.

US Economic Data: Continued US softness keeps markets watching the Fed for direction.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish expectations limit aggressive USD appreciation.

Trade Policy: US-China trade environment remains broadly steady.

Monetary Policy: PBOC maintains a stable-currency priority, anchoring the yuan.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral with slight upward bias.

Resistance: 7.0850 remains immediate resistance.

Support: 7.0700 and 7.0620 act as strong downside levels.

Forecast: Expect continued range-bound trading unless major US or China data surprises.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious but stable as markets await China’s next policy signals.

Catalysts: PBOC liquidity operations, Chinese PMI releases, US yields.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD climbs as hotter inflation data reduces expectations of near-term RBA easing. The pair benefits from improving domestic sentiment and a softer USD backdrop.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Calm geopolitical backdrop helps AUD maintain risk-linked support.

US Economic Data: Mixed US data keeps USD under pressure.

FOMC Outcome: Rate-cut expectations for the Fed encourage USD softness.

Trade Policy: Stabilizing China-Australia relations provide a mild tailwind.

Monetary Policy: Sticky inflation keeps RBA cautious, reinforcing AUD strength.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish momentum intact above 0.6630.

Resistance: 0.6720 followed by 0.6760.

Support: 0.6660 and 0.6600.

Forecast: Further upside likely if inflation remains elevated and risk sentiment stays firm.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Risk appetite supports AUD demand.

Catalysts: RBA commentary, China data, and US inflation prints.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD trades above 1.4000 as falling crude prices undermine the Canadian Dollar. The pair remains supported as oil weakness limits CAD’s ability to recover.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stable geopolitical landscape keeps oil volatility in check but weak demand pressures CAD.

US Economic Data: Soft US data tempers USD gains but does not offset oil-driven CAD weakness.

FOMC Outcome: Anticipated Fed cuts limit broader USD appreciation.

Trade Policy: No major trade disruptions affecting CAD flows.

Monetary Policy: BoC remains cautious as weakening domestic demand persists. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Uptrend remains intact above 1.3970.

Resistance: 1.4050 and 1.4100.

Support: 1.3980 and 1.3920.

Forecast: Further upside possible if oil remains soft.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Slightly risk-off in commodities keeps CAD pressured.

Catalysts: Oil-inventory data, BoC statements, US Dollar response to risk conditions.

Wrap-upToday’s FX landscape remains shaped by shifting monetary expectations, with rate-cut bets driving most directional moves across major pairs. Antipodean currencies are supported by central bank cues, while GBP gains traction on improving UK sentiment and softer USD conditions. Traders now look toward US PCE data and fresh central bank commentary for confirmation of the next major macro catalyst.

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