Gold, GBPUSD, EURUSD

U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report – GoldThe dollar edged higher on Monday as markets brace for a backlog of U.S. economic data following the end of the six-week government shutdown. Thursday’s long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report is in focus, with economists projecting a modest 50,000 job gain, up from August 22,000, while unemployment is expected to remain near 4.5%. The release comes amid heightened uncertainty over the Fed’s December decision, as policymakers weigh persistent inflation against signs of labor market weakness. With additional reports on earnings, inflation, and spending due in the coming days, volatility may rise as investors recalibrate expectations for the path of interest rates.

Gold prices are under pressure, finding support near the 4,045 level and the short-term uptrend line. A rebound from this area could revive optimism for another bullish wave toward the recent peak at 4,250 and the all-time high at 4,381. Conversely, a break below the uptrend line may shift focus to the 20-day SMA at 3,950.

UK CPI – GBPUSDConfidence in a December rate cut by the Bank of England has strengthened after September’s CPI held at 3.8% y/y and core inflation eased to 3.4%. This Wednesday’s October CPI release is expected to show further moderation toward 3.5%, reinforcing bets of an 80% chance for a 25-bps cut next month. Combined with recent weak employment and GDP data, a softer inflation print would cement expectations for policy easing and likely weigh on the pound. With the Autumn Statement on November 26, this week’s CPI figures could set the tone for the BoE’s year-end strategy.

GBPUSD is oscillating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 1.2100 to 1.3788 at 1.3140, remaining below the SMAs and the medium-term downtrend line. If the bullish correction has ended, the pair may revisit the six-and-a-half-month low at 1.3010. However, as technical oscillators still point upward, the market could test the 1.3210–1.3260 region.

Eurozone PMIs – EURUSDEurozone flash PMIs due Friday are expected to confirm steady momentum, reinforcing the view that the ECB has finished cutting rates. Analysts see the composite PMI holding at 52.5, signaling continued expansion, while manufacturing is forecast to edge up to 49.8 from 49.6 still below the growth threshold but improving. Services is expected to ease slightly to 54.0 from 54.6, remaining comfortably in expansion territory. Any upside surprise, particularly if manufacturing crosses above 50, could give the euro a modest lift against the dollar, though the overall rate outlook is unlikely to shift.

EURUSD faced strong resistance near 1.1660, which overlaps with the 50- and 100-day SMAs, pushing the market toward the 1.1600 round number. Further losses could lead to the three-month low of 1.1470, keeping the pair below the medium-term uptrend line. RSI and MACD indicators suggest more downside pressure.