Markets Await US PCE as Dollar Softens | 13th March, 2026

Markets Eye US PCE

Global markets are trading cautiously as investors position ahead of the highly anticipated US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Dollar is edging lower below the 100.00 level as traders reduce positions before the key data release, allowing several major currencies to stabilize or post modest gains. The New Zealand Dollar and Pound Sterling are showing resilience as the Dollar retreats slightly, while the Euro remains supported above the 1.1500 level. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is attempting a modest recovery as intervention concerns re-emerge in Tokyo ahead of the US inflation release.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The New Zealand Dollar posts mild gains above the 0.5850 level as traders cautiously position ahead of the US PCE inflation report. The move reflects temporary US Dollar softness rather than a strong shift in underlying sentiment.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions remain present but are not the primary driver of FX flows today.

US Economic Data: The upcoming PCE inflation report is expected to shape USD direction.

FOMC Outcome: Inflation trends will influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves.

Trade Policy: Global trade conditions continue to impact risk-sensitive currencies like NZD.

Monetary Policy: Diverging policy outlooks between the Fed and RBNZ remain a background factor.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild recovery within broader consolidation.

Resistance: 0.5900

Support: 0.5800

Forecast: NZD/USD may remain range-bound until the PCE data provides fresh direction

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral with cautious optimism.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation data, risk sentiment shifts, global macro developments.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index slips slightly below the 100.00 level as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the US PCE inflation release. The pullback reflects temporary profit-taking after recent gains.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions continue to support defensive positioning in USD.

US Economic Data: PCE inflation data will be the primary catalyst for near-term USD direction.

FOMC Outcome: Inflation readings will influence expectations regarding the timing of future rate adjustments.

Trade Policy: Global uncertainty reinforces the Dollar’s role as a safe-haven currency.

Monetary Policy: The Fed’s policy outlook remains closely tied to inflation developments.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild corrective pullback.

Resistance: 100.50

Support: 99.20

Forecast: The Dollar could regain strength if inflation data surprises to the upside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation release, Treasury yields, macroeconomic surprises.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD holds gains above the 1.1500 level as the US Dollar softens slightly ahead of the key inflation release. The pair reflects cautious positioning as traders await fresh macro signals.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty supports defensive positioning across major currencies.

US Economic Data: PCE inflation data will influence USD direction.

FOMC Outcome: Higher inflation readings could reinforce expectations of tighter policy.

Trade Policy: Global trade developments continue to affect economic sentiment.

Monetary Policy: Policy divergence between the ECB and Fed remains a key driver.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Sideways consolidation.

Resistance: 1.1620

Support: 1.1450

Forecast: EUR/USD may experience increased volatility following the inflation release.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral with slight bullish bias.

Catalysts: US PCE data, ECB commentary, global risk sentiment.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Japanese Yen recovers slightly against the US Dollar as intervention concerns resurface in Tokyo. The move comes ahead of the US inflation data, which could influence Treasury yields and currency flows.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand occasionally supports the Yen during periods of uncertainty.

US Economic Data: PCE inflation data could significantly impact USD/JPY direction.

FOMC Outcome: Federal Reserve policy expectations remain the dominant driver.

Trade Policy: Global macro conditions continue to influence currency flows.

Monetary Policy: Continued uncertainty around Bank of Japan policy adds volatility to Yen movements.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild corrective pullback.

Resistance: 159.50

Support: 157.20

Forecast: USD/JPY could remain volatile depending on yield movements after the inflation release.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously risk-off.

Catalysts: US PCE data, Treasury yields, BoJ intervention signals.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

Pound Sterling rises modestly as the US Dollar retreats ahead of the key inflation report. The move reflects short-term USD softness rather than a strong shift in fundamental sentiment.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions continue to influence safe-haven demand.

US Economic Data: PCE inflation data will determine the near-term trajectory of USD.

FOMC Outcome: Strong inflation readings could reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations.

Trade Policy: Global economic uncertainty continues to influence FX flows.

Monetary Policy: Diverging Fed-BoE policy outlook remains an important factor.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bullish recovery.

Resistance: 1.2750

Support: 1.2600

Forecast: GBP/USD may remain volatile as traders digest the upcoming inflation data.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bullish.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation report, UK economic releases, central bank commentary.

Wrap-Up

With the US PCE inflation report approaching, markets are likely to remain cautious as investors assess the potential implications for Federal Reserve policy. Currency movements currently reflect positioning rather than strong directional conviction, as traders await confirmation on the path of inflation. Once the data is released, volatility across FX markets could increase significantly, particularly if the inflation reading deviates from expectations.

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