Trump Signals End to Iran Conflict; Markets Shift to "Wait-and-See"

ATFX Market Outlook - 10th March 2026

Trump Signals End to Iran Conflict; Markets Shift to "Wait-and-See"

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Summary

·       Geopolitics: President Trump suggested that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran may be nearing its conclusion.

·       Energy Policy: The G7 is prepared to take necessary action to address surging oil prices, though a final decision on deploying emergency strategic reserves has not yet been reached.

·       Key Focus Today: The U.S. has transitioned to Daylight Saving Time this week; as a result, market openings and data releases will occur one hour earlier than during the winter. Today’s economic spotlight is on the February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, which is expected to remain steady above 99. Additionally, investors will monitor February Existing Home Sales to see if the market experiences a second consecutive month of slowing growth.

Global Market Overview

Wall Street rebounded from a sharp sell-off on Monday, closing higher after President Trump signalled that the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran might be nearing an end, with the Dow rising 0.5%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.83%, and the Nasdaq climbing 1.38%. The U.S. Dollar Index experienced volatile downward movement and dropped sharply in late New York trading following the President's comments, allowing the Euro to recover from a four-month low. 

In the commodities markets, spot gold fell 0.67% to $5,135.37 per ounce due to a stronger dollar and rising interest rate expectations, while international oil prices saw extreme volatility; after hitting a three-year high on OPEC supply cuts, WTI crude reversed its gains to end more than 6% lower, despite intraday swings of nearly 40%.

Key Events Today:

11:00 CN Balance of Trade FEB ** 

22:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM FEB ** 

Tomorrow: 

00:00 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook **

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 

07:50 JP PPI YoY FEB **  

15:00 EU GERMANY CPI MoM FEB ** 

20:30 US CPI YoY FEB *** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change ** 

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1712/1.1771Support: 1.1520/1.1459

EURUSD rebounded 0.1% to 1.1630 after hitting a three-month low. Trump’s comments that the war is "nearly over" boosted risk appetite, encouraging capital flows back into the Euro from the safe-haven Dollar.

Analyst View: The Euro’s bounce remains confined within a bearish channel, currently testing resistance at 1.1653. While geopolitical relief helps, the technical structure is still weak. Without a breakout above the trendline, the pair risks a slide back toward the 1.1459 support zone ahead of Wednesday's CPI.

Bias: Bullish short-term if 1.1685 is breached.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3544/1.3606Support: 1.3342/1.3281

GBPUSD flipped from losses to gains on Monday. Improved market sentiment, driven by cooling energy prices and Trump’s optimistic outlook, offset the drag from last week’s disappointing employment data.

Analyst View: Sterling is attempting to stabilize within its descending channel, currently rebounding above the 1.3342 support level. While sentiment has brightened, price action remains capped by trendline resistance. A decisive breach of 1.3544 is required to signal a trend reversal; otherwise, a retest of 1.3281 remains possible.

Bias: Bullish short-term if 1.3450 is breached.

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.93/159.74Support: 156.86/156.24

The pair slipped 0.1% on Monday after earlier hitting a six-week high. Trump’s hint at an early end to the war triggered profit-taking in the Dollar, sending the pair back from session highs.

Analyst View: USDJPY is consolidating after testing major resistance at 158.93, remaining anchored above the 156.86 support floor. While cooling geopolitical tensions weigh on USD demand, the broader yield differential supports the uptrend channel. Maintaining this base keeps the path open for a retest of 159.74.

Bias: Bullish bias above 157.00.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

Resistance: 89.28/95.36Support: 77.15/71.19

WTI crude experienced wild volatility, spiking 30% toward $119 before crashing to near $87.70. Relief came as Trump hinted at a quick end to the war and considered easing sanctions on Russian oil.

Analyst View: Oil prices saw a sharp retreat following extreme spikes and are now testing the 83.21 support level. While Trump’s rhetoric cooled the war premium, supply risks persist. A decisive break below 77.15 could expose the 71.19 psychological floor.

Bias: Consolidation below $90.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 5284/5353Support: 5062/4994

Spot Silver

Resistance: 91.50/93.64Support: 84.98/82.29

Gold tumbled over 1% to $5,091.62 on Monday. A surging Dollar and rising interest rate expectations outweighed safe-haven demand, as investors feared persistent inflation would force the Fed into a more hawkish stance.

Analyst View: Gold is testing the lower boundary of its ascending channel and the 5,062 support zone. While geopolitical risks persist, the stronger USD is capping gains. Holding above 4,994 is critical for maintaining the bullish structure; failure to do so could expose deeper corrections.

Bias: Short-term range-bound.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 48556/48870Support: 47225/46826

The Dow closed 0.50% higher, reversing losses late in the session. Trump’s positive signals about an early end to the war triggered a last-hour rally, partially offsetting earlier stagflation fears driven by energy costs.

Analyst View: The Dow is attempting to bottom out near 47,225 after a sharp acceleration within its descending channel. While geopolitical relief spurred a rebound, the technical structure remains bearish. Failure to maintain this base could expose a deeper slide toward the 46,826 support floor.

Bias: Weak bias below 48,000.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 25317/25516Support: 24720/24470

The NAS100 surged 1.38%, outperforming other indices as tech stocks led a recovery. Relieving geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices reduced the risk premium, while trading volume surged significantly on Monday.

Analyst View: The NAS100 found strong buying interest near the 24,470 support, currently rebounding toward the upper half of its descending channel. While sentiment has brightened, price action remains capped. A decisive break above 25,317 is required to signal a trend reversal.

Bias: Weak bias below 25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 71347/72733

Support: 65573/64234

Bitcoin climbed 3% to $68,960.7 on Monday, staging a strong recovery after slipping below $66,000 over the weekend. While inflation fears remain, Trump’s hints at a potential end to the conflict buoyed sentiment. Additionally, Strategy's $1.28 billion acquisition of 17,994 BTC significantly bolstered market confidence.

Analyst View: Bitcoin is trending higher within an ascending channel, successfully reclaiming the 68,299 handle. Fueled by institutional accumulation and easing geopolitical risks, bullish momentum is accelerating. A decisive break above 71,347.00 could clear the path for a retest of 72,733.00 and beyond.

Bias: Bullish above 64,234.00.

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