Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

·         Fed meeting in focus with USDJPY remaining under pressure

·         Positive NFP report may drive EURUSD lower

·         BoE to keep rates unchanged as GBPUSD consolidates 

Fed policy meeting --> USDJPY

The most important event this coming week will be the January policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. Investors are still sure that a dovish turn is on the way. Since there won't be any changes to policy and there won't be a dot plot to look at, investors will be listening to Chair Powell's press conference for any new clues about when the first-rate cut will happen.

In FX markets, USDJPY has been stubbornly pushing for some downside recovery without success lately. Despite the current negative mood in the market, traders are monitoring if the pair can escape a drop below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 151.90 to 140.20 at 147.40. Any movements lower could meet the 146.60 support and the 50.0% Fibonacci of 146.07, which holds near the bullish crossover within the 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). 

NFP report --> EURUSD

Non-farm payrolls report would be another interesting data release this week. Following an unexpected surge in December, it is probable that the employment market experienced a decline in activity during January. The employment rate is expected to have increased by 177k compared to 216k in the previous month. The projected unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 3.8% from 3.7% before, while average hourly earnings are predicted to sustain a moderate growth rate of 0.3% month-on-month in January.

If there is another unexpectedly positive result in the headline payrolls report, it would not be favorable for those who are expecting a rate decrease to happen soon. In such a scenario, the value of the dollar might rapidly increase as an immediate response. 

EURUSD is still finding crucial support at the 200-day SMA, which stands near the 1.0845 support level and below the medium-term uptrend line. Any movements beneath this line could test the 1.0815 barrier ahead of 1.0725 that would endorse the bearish structure. Alternatively, a rally beyond the bearish cross within the 20- and the 50-day SMAs could drive the market towards the 1.1000 psychological level again. Above that, the 1.1140 resistance may halt bullish actions. 

BoE policy meeting --> GBPUSD

On Thursday, the Bank of England will meet for the first time in 2024 to decide on rate changes. Many people think that the BoE will keep interest rates the same as the Fed and ECB did before it. This is because inflation in the UK is still well above the BoE's goal of 2%, even though it is going down.

The consolidation within the 1.2610-1.2785 zone over the last  could make GBPUSD sensitive to any cautious wording in the meeting. In the case of a climb beyond 1.2785-1.2825, it could open the way for further upside movements until the 1.3000 round number. On the other hand, a decline beneath the 1.2610 support could increase speculation for a bearish correction until the 200-day SMA at 1.2550 ahead of the 1.2495 barricade.