Year-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Precious Metals as USD and Risk Assets Diverge

ATFX Market Outlook 2nd January 2026

Year-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Precious Metals as USD and Risk Assets Diverge

Market Highlight

On Wednesday, global financial markets experienced heightened volatility as 2025 drew to a close. The U.S. Dollar Index briefly climbed toward 98.50, marking a one-week high, before paring gains to close slightly higher at 98.28. Despite the rebound, the dollar recorded its largest annual decline in eight years. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 199,000, lifting U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose to 4.172%, while the 2-year yield climbed to 3.483%, highlighting persistent market divergence over the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Precious metals faced concentrated profit-taking following historic annual gains. Combined with the CME’s second margin hike for precious metals futures within a week, gold and silver retreated sharply. Spot gold briefly fell to a low near USD 4,274 before settling below USD 4,310, while silver recorded an intraday drop of over 7%. Crude oil remained under pressure amid oversupply concerns, with both WTI and Brent closing lower. Equity markets also softened into year-end trading. U.S. indices declined but still notched a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, while Hong Kong and A-share markets ended the year with notable annual performance despite short-term pressure.

Key Outlook

Markets will focus on final manufacturing PMI readings from Europe and the U.S., including the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI. Continued contraction could reinforce concerns over slowing global momentum, weighing on risk assets while offering temporary support to the dollar. Conversely, signs of stabilization may ease pessimism and allow short-term recovery in equities and non-dollar assets. Following the sharp correction in precious metals, near-term volatility is expected to remain driven by macro data and policy expectations.

Key Data and Events Today:

New Zealand – New Year’s Day; China – New Year’s Day; Japan – Market Holiday

16:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

17:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

17:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

22:45 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Final DEC *** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: JP Services PMI Final, CN Caixin Services PMI, EU Sentix Investor Confidence, US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: Germany Services PMI Final, EU Services PMI Final, GB Services PMI Final, Germany CPI MoM (Prel), US ISM Services PMI

Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, EU CPI YoY Flash, US ADP Employment Change, US JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Thursday: CN Balance of Trade, EU Unemployment Rate, EU PPI MoM, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: CN CPI YoY, CA Unemployment Rate, US Non-Farm Payrolls, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel)

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1786 / 1.1808

Support: 1.1689 / 1.1666

EURUSD remains range-bound amid thin year-start liquidity, with markets awaiting final German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI data, both expected to weaken. Technically, price has pulled back from the 1.1786–1.1808 resistance zone and is testing the channel midline, with 1.1666–1.1689 acting as key support. The pair remains largely driven by USD dynamics.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3534 / 1.3575

Support: 1.3399 / 1.3357

GBPUSD is consolidating alongside USD movements. The UK December Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold at 51.2, offering limited directional guidance. Technically, the pair remains within an ascending channel, consolidating at elevated levels rather than signaling a trend reversal.

USDJPY

Resistance: 157.77 / 158.17

Support: 156.06 / 155.65

USDJPY is consolidating at highs amid reduced liquidity due to Japan’s market holiday. Weak U.S. PMI data could pressure the dollar further. Technically, rebounds remain capped near 157.77–158.17, while 155.65–156.06 remains key support.

US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)

Resistance: 58.42 / 58.87

Support: 56.92 / 56.46

Oil prices remain resilient amid thin holiday trading, supported by rising geopolitical risk premiums linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict and energy infrastructure attacks. Technically, WTI is consolidating within an ascending channel, with resistance near 58.42–58.87 and key support at 56.46–56.92.

Spot Gold

Resistance: 4,404 / 4,461

Support: 4,221 / 4,163

Spot Silver

Resistance: 75.08 / 78.44

Support: 66.93 / 64.25

Gold remains elevated amid multiple risk factors, including renewed U.S. government shutdown risks, geopolitical tensions, and expectations for rate cuts in 2026. Following a sharp pullback, prices are consolidating around the USD 4,300 level. Volatility is expanding, and the defense of the 4,300 zone will determine whether the move remains corrective or extends further.

Dow Futures

Resistance: 48,431 / 48,744

Support: 47,719 / 47,401

U.S. equities remain cautious at the start of the year amid fiscal uncertainty and political risks. The Dow has pulled back into the middle of its descending channel, with 47,719–47,401 acting as key support. The structure suggests high-level pullback and reconsolidation.

NAS100

Resistance: 25,566 / 25,836

Support: 25,018 / 24,744

The NAS100 is consolidating near record highs as profit-taking in tech stocks tempers short-term sentiment. Rate-cut expectations and the medium-term AI theme continue to provide underlying support. Technically, price remains capped by resistance of  descending channel.

BTC    

· Resistance: 89,086/89,821

· Support: 86,743/86,020

Bitcoin is consolidating around 88,000–89,000, with a clear 4H range structure; resistance stands at 89,086–89,821 after repeated rejections. Support at 86,743–86,020 remains intact, suggesting consolidation rather than reversal, as unstable ETF flows and macro uncertainty cap upside unless a decisive breakout occurs.

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